Black Jesus

Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote a great beat blog piece last night regarding the Cavs and Amare. Here is the whole article:

Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns talking Amare Stoudemire trade, according to report: Windhorst Beat Blog

The Arizona Republic reported late Sunday night that the Cavaliers are one of three teams to be in talks recently with the Suns about trading for star Amare Stoudemire.

The reporter on this story is the Republic's Paul Coro, which why there is a blog going up on this topic now and it is not being regarded as common fodder. Coro has a good reputation for being credible. For example, was the first to report the Cavs and Suns had re-started trade talks for Shaquille O'Neal last June.

I had not heard the Cavs have discussed trading for Stoudemire, but league sources have said the Suns are quite worried that Stoudemire plans to leave via free agency next summer and have been looking for a commitment from him now. If they can't get it, a source told me last week, they will press ahead looking to make a deal before next month's deadline.

The Suns have already made several salary-dumping trades over the last year, the biggest was sending O'Neal to the Cavs for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, which saved the team more than $10 million when both players were bought out (figuring in luxury tax savings).

It would be surprising that the Suns would want to do another salary dump trade with a star, but it isn't impossible. This move potentially could save team owner Robert Sarver another $10 million, and perhaps more.

The natural trade that makes sense here would be Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson for Stoudemire. The Suns could also ask for draft picks, as the Cavs own their full slate of first-round picks in the future. The Cavs and Suns talked about Hickson in the O'Neal deal, but the Cavs wanted to keep him. So the Suns have a history of interest in Hickson. They also considered drafting him in 2008 but took Robin Lopez instead.

Straight up, this type of deal would save the Suns around $3.4 million off their payroll ($6.8 million including luxury tax). However, the Suns currently are a little more than $5 million over the luxury-tax line. It is possible they could then negotiate a buyout with Ilgauskas and get below the tax, which would probably enable such a trade to save them around $10 million in real money. The cash advantage could actually increase because, if the Suns got below the tax line of $69.9 million, they would be able to get their share from the fund created by the tax-paying teams. In other words, it would be worth millions more.

In addition, because of a clause in his contract, Ilgauskas has already been paid about 75 percent of his $11.5 million salary this season. He would be owed a trade kicker of around $2 million, but the Suns could save up to $3 million in the swap from money already paid to Ilgauskas that wouldn't have to come out of their coffers. All of that is subject to negotiation, of course, but the point here is this is a potential deal worth lots of money to Phoenix if they worked all these details out. But, in short, it is complicated.

Coro reports that the Golden State Warriors and the Minnesota Timberwolves have also talked to the Suns. The Suns and Warriors nearly pulled a deal for Stoudemire last June before the draft but it fell apart. There is little doubt that both the Wolves and Warriors could put together more talent-rich offers for Stoudemire. The Cavs cannot and will not offer the same package of young players.

But with Stoudemire having the right to become a free agent this summer, it would be foolish for either team to trade for him without an agreement he'd re-sign with them. He already made it clear he didn't want to go to Golden State last summer, which was one of the sticking points to that failed trade. It is hard to believe he'd want to stay in Minnesota, which is in the middle of a large rebuilding project.

That factor reduces Stoudemire's value on the trade market and is why such a deal would make some sense for the Cavs. Stoudemire has said he wants to play for a contender, but probably would also be attracted to New York or Miami in the offseason. So the danger is the Cavs may find themselves renting him as well.

Another issue in thinking about this potential trade, however, is Stoudemire's relationship with O'Neal. The people in Phoenix say that O'Neal and Stoudemire got along just fine in the locker room, but they didn't so much on the floor. Their styles got in each other's way, and it was one of the reasons the Suns first thought about trading Stoudemire a year ago and then flirted with the idea again in the summer before trading O'Neal instead.

Stoudemire is a pick-and-roll specialist who loves going to the rim. O'Neal was often in his way. It is questionable whether pairing them together again would work on the floor or be acceptable to either player. There would have to be agreement on all sides, and that doesn't count Ilgauskas, who would have to agree to a buyout to make the trade even come together.

Of course, LeBron James is in the picture as a playmaker, but O'Neal and Stoudemire had Steve Nash, one of the greatest playmakers of this era, to help in Phoenix. So all of this could be simple posturing and due diligence from the Cavs. They'd have to be convinced the two could work together and that they would have a good chance of re-signing Stoudemire to go forward with it.

If nothing else, this rumor should create a lot of chatter, which is why fans like this time of year. If I didn't think there was some basis for it or that it wasn't possible, this blog would not have been written.

Now why would the Cavs want to deal for Amare? I have 2 theories. One, the Cavs think that they can get Amare at the price of Z (buyout), JJ, and picks. By adding Amare, the Cavs will have one of the best frontcourt players in the NBA. Amare is only 27 years old, and he would be a great 2nd fiddle to LeBron. He is a strong finisher at the basket, can run the pick and roll, and has a good mid range jumper. The Cavs do not have the cap space to sign a max free agent in 2010, but if they have the opportunity to add a max player via trade then they will. Getting a talent like Amare at that price would be a steal. The other teams that are interested include the 76'ers, Nets, Bulls, and Heat. The Heat are a team that could definitely trade for Amare because they could trade the expiring deal of Quentin Richardson, and they could dangle Michael Beasley in a trade. The Bulls could offer the expiring deals of Tim Thomas or Brad Miller, along with Tyrus Thomas. The 76'ers don't have any expiring contracts, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala to offer. The Nets could offer the expiring deal of Tony Battie, along with Devin Harris or Courtney Lee in a deal. As you can see the Cavs do have some competition in terms of trading for Amare.

Second, this could be a smokescreen by the Cavs to get the Wizards and Pacers to lower their demands for Jamison and Murphy. I think this is a more plausible theory to believe because I don't believe the Cavs have the assets to pull a deal for Amare. The Cavs could be sending a message to the Wizards and Pacers that they are talking with other teams, and that they can get a star player like Amare by giving up a little more.

Some of the risks I see with Amare are that he is known as someone who could be difficult to deal with, and that his attitude might not be the greatest. I have heard from a couple sources that Amare and Shawn Marion caused a few problems in the Suns locker room as they were unhappy with the amount of shots they were getting. Another risk is that Amare' defense is just bad. Yes, he plays for the Phoenix Suns, where defense is optional, but he has never impressed me as a defender. I remember watching the Cavs play the Suns once last year, and Anderson Varajao drove to the basket and just dunked in front of Amare. He made no attempt to even defend Anderson. Also, the idea of having Shaq and Amare down low would clog the lane as Amare is great at the pick and roll, while Shaq is a tree down low.

The final thing I will say about this is that the Cavs must get some sort of assurance or indication that Amare is going to stay in Cleveland. The Cavs would own his Bird Rights which would allow them to sign him to a max deal after this year. It makes no sense for the Cavs to just rent Amare for 4 months. This would greatly increase our chances of keeping LeBron. I don't see Amare giving an indication that he will stay unless LeBron does the same. Do I want Amare? Yes, he would be a great low post threat who has a lot of good years left in him. Will it happen? Probably not, but the fact that Windhorst is writing so in-depth about it gives me some sort of hope that the Cavs are looking to add a big name player by the trade deadline. Read the last two paragraphs of the article. They are trying everything to keep LeBron, and utilize the last key asset the team has (Z's expiring deal). Keep this in mind too, Suns GM Steve Kerr is very good friends with Cavs GM Danny Ferry. Kerr traded Shaq to the Cavs for nothing. Celtics GM Danny Ainge got Kevin Garnett from then Timbervolves GM Kevin McHale (Ainge and McHale were teammates for the Celtics in the 80's). Jerry West was the GM of the Grizzlies when they traded Pau Gasol to the LA Lakers (West played for the Lakers). I'd be surprised if a deal for Amare happend, but you never say never....

Thanks for reading. Go Cleveland!

-Raz