Friday, January 1, 2010

Total Destruction

Hope everyone had a great holiday and a wonderful New Years! Here are some quick Cavs thoughts.

-According to numerous reports, the Washington Wizards are going to be blowing their team up. This shouldn't be a shock as they have 10-20 record, injuries to Antwan Jamison and Mike Miller, a $79 million payroll, and the Gilbert Arenas fiasco on hand (he supposedly had guns in the locker room, and he drew them at teammate).

-With this said, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports is reporting that the team is looking to trade Gilbert Arenas' long contract, and Antwan Jamison. Rockets G Tracy McGrady has a $23 million expiring contract and the Wizards are apparently trying to trade for it, as they will try to use Caron Butler has a "sweetener" in the deal. The Wizards are trying to get a large expiring contract in a deal.

-With all this said, there aren't many contenders who will trade for the 33 year old Jamison. Lakers? They have no expiring contracts worth trading for. Celtics? They have small expiring contracts, and they didn't want to take on the contract of F Andres Nocioni earlier this year. They just signed Rajon Rondo to a new deal, and Ray Allen will be a free agent next year. Magic? Again they have no large expiring contracts. Hawks? Their ownership had to fight with each other to take on G Jamal Crawford's contract. Spurs? They have a bunch of small expiring deals, and that of G Manu Ginobili, but he isn't going anywhere. Suns? They are bleeding money, they traded Shaq to us to save money. Portland? They have the $9 million expiring contract of F Darius Miles, but I feel that they would be reluctant to trade some of their younger players (Rudy Fernandez/Jerryd Bayless) for Jamison. The injury of C Greg Oden really hurts this team, and they won't want to take on the 3 year contract of a 33 year old that could hamstring them in free agency.

-The Dallas Mavericks are the only team I could see going after Jamison. They have an owner who will take on more money in Mark Cuban. They have F Josh Howard who has 2 years left on his deal, with the final deal being a team option. They could use that to trade for F Jamison, but do they really need him? The team already has Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, Erick Dampier, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Thomas, and James Singleton at their 3 and 4 positions. The team has a payroll of $87 million this year, and you have to wonder when Mark Cuban will realize that trading young talent, draft picks, and expiring contracts (2 first round picks, Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop, Devean George, and Maurice Ager) for aging talent (Jason Kidd), will not get you a championship. You never say never in the NBA, but there is a shot Dallas gets in the mix for Jamison.

-My point is that everyone keeps throwing JJ Hickson's name in the deal. Why? What leverage do the Wiz have? Everyone knows they aren't good, and they have said that they are going to blow the team up. There aren't going to be a lot of contenders calling for Jamison, and if ownership says that the team has to cut payroll, they will have to be forced to trade Jamison. Jamison is 33 years old, and his deal goes until 2012. His production will eventually begin to erode, and while he has played well the last few seasons, he did suffer a shoulder injury that kept him out for the first few weeks of this year.

-The Cavs and LeBron know that JJ Hickson can be a solid contributor in the future, and you can't trade your young talent for aging/long contracts of players. They want to win many NBA championships, not just one. Ask the Toronto Raptors how long it took them to get back to playoff contention after they traded Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, and Marcus Camby. Cavs GM Danny Ferry puts a lot of value into young talent and draft picks, so I find it hard that he would trade Hickson or a pick for Jamison. Ferry worked with Spurs GM RC Buford and GM Wayne Embry in Toronto. He saw how to rebuild a team in Toronto, and how to build a championship team in the Spurs.

-Also, the Wizards have to know that there are going to be other PF's on the market that the Cavs could realistically get for Z's contract. One player is PF Troy Murphy of the Indiana Pacers. According to NBA sources, the Cavs have shown interest in Murphy. Again, the Pacers will probably try to cut payroll as they have a $66 million payroll, and a 9-22 record. If they bought out Z, it would again save the team more money.

-As long as a non-contending team decides to not take on the contract of Jamison (like the Grizzlies did this year by taking on the large contract of Zach Randolph), then I could really see Jamison here with the Cavs. We could save the Wizards even more money if they agree to buy Z out of his deal. Instead of paying him the remaining $6 million of his contract, they can pay him $2 or $3 million to release him. This will help cut there luxury tax bill, as teams who are over the luxury tax pay double for any new salaries added.

-GM Danny Ferry will probably make an offer to the Wizards in the coming weeks, and just wait to it out. He will offer what he thinks is the best deal for the Cavs, and he won't hyperextend himself in adding a player like JJ Hickson or Christian Eyenga. I have heard that the Bucks wanted a draft pick in the Mo Williams deal, and the Suns wanted a first round pick in the Shaq deal. He did neither. He will continue to play hardball when looking to make a trade. Ferry will wait for a team to bite on an offer.

This Jamison story will probably continue to fester like the Stephen Jackson rumors did. Hopefully this time we will actually get Jamison. If the Cavs can get Jamison and get Z back, then I really think they can legitimately win the NBA Championship. He would add more size, scoring, and rebounding to our frontcourt. He is probably the hungriest player on the Wizards, he would definitely love to win an NBA title in his career, and the Cavs give him a great opportunity to do so. Even if the Cavs add F Troy Murphy for Z getting bought out, then we improve our chances of winning an NBA Championship. I am sure a couple more names will pop up in the near future. Stay tuned, it should be an interesting couple months. Thanks for reading and go Cleveland!

-Raz

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