Thursday, February 11, 2010

One Week Left

Well folks, there is about one week til the trade deadline and there is a lot to cover. To start, I am of the belief that the Cavs are working extremely hard to get a deal done. Brian Windhorst of the Plain Dealer reported last week that Cavs GM Danny Ferry has been "in a bunker" on the phones trying to work a deal since last week. He has not traveled with the team and he is in the team offices trying to get a deal done. I outlined a few weeks ago why I think the Cavs would make a deal (Dan Gilbert, Z's expiring deal as the last asset before 2010 FA, Buyer's market). Windhorst also reported that Z would be willing to take a buyout from the team, but the team has to be cautious because of the way he reacted by the benching of Z earlier in the season. He commented that the Cavs would like to make a trade sooner rather than later, so they can integrate all the necessary parts quicker. Also, he made note that the Cavs have about 3 deals on the table right now, but these deals all include JJ Hickson, and the Cavs do not want to put him in these deals. I have stated my opinion before, and unless your trading for Bosh or Amare, you don't put Hickson in a deal. During this time of the year we are going to hear a ton of names out there, and I will make a brief list of who I think the Cavs could end up with by next week.

Antawn Jamison- I have written about Jamison numerous times. Jamison's agent has told the Wizards that he wants out, and the new owner of the Wizards plans on rebuilding the entire team. The recent talk on him is that the Wizards are very reluctant to do a deal with us for Jamison, and that the Cavs do not trust the Wizards to buyout Z. With that said, the Cavs are trying to get a 3rd team involved in this deal and Windhorst mentioned the Houston Rockets. An insider on the RealCavsFans forum (he works for the Cavs, he informed the board of the Ben Wallace, Shaq, and Mo Williams trades hours before they happened) stated that the Cavs/Wizards/Rockets have an offer on the table that has Z going to Houston, Jamison to Cleveland, Caron Butler to Houston, and Tracy McGrady to the Wizards. The Cavs hope is that Houston will buyout Z. Butler would give Houston the wing scorer they need, and the Wizards would get about $22 million off their books for next year via McGrady's expiring deal. The insider mentioned that fillers would have to be added, and I am guessing a draft pick or Danny Green could be thrown into the mix to sweeten everything up. He said the deal is being "consummated" by all the teams, and that this could be the deal that goes down. Also, the chatter in the locker room is that Z does expect a trade for Jamison to go down sometime by next week.

As you can see, Jamison is the Cavs #1 target. He fits exactly what we need, and if we don't have to give up JJ Hickson for him, the Cavs have to do it. I don't mind us giving up a future 2nd rounder or Danny Green to get the deal done either. Z getting bought out could be tricky, but the Cavs trust Houston GM Daryl Morey much more than they do Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld. If this deal breaks down, other 3rd teams include the Milwaukee Bucks (they have made the expiring contracts of Luke Ridnour, Hakim Warrick, and Joe Alexander available ) and NY Knicks (Al Harrington's $10 million expiring deal and Larry Hughes' $12 million expiring deal) could be used. Windhorst noted that the Cavs will not directly help the Knicks, but that Harrington or Hughes could go to the Wizards to help with cap relief. Trust me, Larry Hughes will not wear a Cavs uniform again. The Cavs will also use the negotiations with Troy Murphy as leverage against the Wizards because it has become apparent that the Pacers and Cavs have come closer to a deal. I have a feeling Ferry will try to trade Z and maybe a pick or Danny Green for Murphy, and if he gets a deal agreed upon, he will go to the Wizards one last time offering the same package to see if they will budge. One thing Cavs fans have to realize is that Danny Ferry will not overpay for a player and that he wants to win in trades. He turned Damon Jones into Mo Williams, Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic into Shaq, and Larry Hughes into Delonte West. He is going to offer financial relief to teams, and his logic is that the Cavs should be the team getting a draft pick in return for saving a team large amounts of money. 2 years ago Kurt Thomas got traded from the Suns along with 2 first round draft picks to the Seattle Suppersonics for a future 2nd rounder. The Suns paid 2 first round picks for the SuperSonics to give them cap relief. I just can't imagine any other team who will be willing to take on another 2 years of Jamison' deal. Ferry will not budge come deadline and he will wait for a team to give into his demands. I think landing Jamison is about 50/50 right now.

Troy Murphy- Much like Jamison, I have written about Murphy in the past. His impact might not be as great as Jamison' but his contract becomes an asset next year as he becomes an expiring contract. The Pacers have lowered their demands for Murphy, but they are still asking for JJ Hickson. I assume Ferry will just offer Z and a filler for Murphy. The problem here is that Pacers C Jeff Foster is out for the year and Tyler Hansbrough has been out for the last month. The Pacers need bodies in their frontcourt and they are looking for a PF in return that could play. I don't think there would be any problems of Z getting bought out by the Pacers if he was traded either. Also, I think Murphy will be the #2 option if we do not land Jamison. I think there is a solid chance we could land Murphy.

Andre Iguodala- I don't believe I have written about Iggy before. His name is being made available by the Sixers due to their desire to cut payroll. Teams wanting Iggy would have to take on the last 2 years of Samuel Dalembert's contract as well ($12 million). Elton Brand's horrible contract has been mentioned, but I wouldn't go near it as there are 4 years left on his deal. I am not sure if Iggy would fit here as a SG because he isn't a great shooter (47% FG 37% from 3), but he is a great perimeter defender. We saw what happend the last time we had a SG who couldn't shoot play on the Cavs. At the same time, Iggy has been asked to be the #1 guy on his team but his skill level seems to be that of a #2 guy, which the Cavs have needed. Also, his contract goes for another 4 years at about $15 million a year. I don't mind taking on Dalembert because his deal becomes an expiring one next year. I am just very reluctant to add JJ Hickson to this deal because I feel we are saving the Sixers a lot of cap space in the future. I'm not sure if Iggy is the perfect fit in Cleveland either. Taking on a big deal like that could hamstring us in the future as well. We would be stuck with Iggy as our 2nd fiddle, and if it doesn't work, it would be very hard to move his deal. Talks seemed to be heated last week, but since then the fire has seemed to died down. I don't think Iggy will be wearing a Cavs uniform by next week.

Kevin Martin- I mentioned his name earlier and how Martin could fit in here. I believe there is a chance he could be dealt. Since Martin's return to the starting lineup the Kings are 3-12. It is obvious that rookie Tyreke Evans and Martin cannot exist in the same backcourt as they both need the ball to be effective, and that neither is a true PG. The Kings were doing better when they had PG Beno Udrih running the team, and Evans playing SG. Due to the fact that they have two players who are very similar, the Kings could look to unload Martin and Andres Nocioni as well (2 more years left on the deal). The Cavs would have to give up Z (buyout), Hickson, and sign and trade Wally Z too. I would consider it, but I am not sure if I would go through with it. I don't see Martin getting traded here though. The Kings probably won't be making Martin available though.

Amare Stoudemire- I wrote my last blog about him, and since then it seems like the talks have died. The Cavs are scared of the me-first personality of Amare, lack of defense, lack of commitment, lack of cohesion with Shaq, and a history of injuries (eye/knee). With that said, the Miami Heat look like a possible suitor for Amare because of the Heat's willingness to move Michael Beasley. You're going to hear his name a lot in the next week, I just don't think the Cavs will be in the mix. Amare won't be wearing a Cavs uniform anytime soon.

As you can see, the names have not changed that much in the past couple of months. The Cavs are driving hard for Jamison, and are using Murphy as their backup option. Hickson is playing better as of late (in his last ten games he is averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds in 21 minutes per game). I am glad Ferry is not going to include Hickson in any of these deals. The Wizards have to be criminally insane to hold onto Jamison, pay him the remaining 3 years on his deal at the age of 33, while trying to rebuild. They have young players such as Nick Young, Andray Blache, and JaVale McGee waiting in the wings. The uncertainty of the Gilbert Arenas situation also plays into this because they might not be able to void his contract. Jamison has made it known he know longer wants to be in Washington. Again, I can't think of a team that would give into the demands of the Wizards, and absorb the deal of Jamison at the same time. You can say the Dallas Mavericks could absorb the contract, but Mark Cuban has stated that he will not trade promising PG Rodrigue Beabouis in any deal (he learned his lesson in the Jason Kidd deal after trading 2 first rounders and Devin Harris for him). Also, the Mavs really don't have a need for a shooting bigman as they already have the best one in the league in Dirk Nowitzki. It's not good business to purposely not deal with a team, especially when they can satisfy your needs. If the Wizards want to spite the Cavs because of the so called "rivlary" go ahead, the Wizards will end up hurting themselves the most. The Wizards are better off playing their youngsters and evaluating the talent they have now, rather than trying to play Jamison for the next couple of years. They should know that even without a trade the Cavs can win the NBA Championship this year.

Next week should be one of the most fun/pivotal weeks of the year for the Cavs. Danny Ferry has to do a great job of balancing this years aspirations of a championship (Z buyout/Jamison/Murphy), while looking at the future of the team (Hickson/Green/Draft picks). Ferry does not want to hamstring the Cavs financially in the long term and he does not want to strip the team of its young assets. In the four years Ferry has been here, he has only had draft picks in 2 of the drafts. Unlike last year, I won't be upset if we don't make a deal this year because I do believe we are one of the 3 best teams in the NBA right now. Thanks for reading, and go Cleveland!

-Raz

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