Thursday, June 30, 2011

The Real Chosen One

Before I get into my Cavs NBA Draft Review, this afternoon Chris Grant and Co. made a trade with the Sacramento Kings. The Cavs traded 22 year old PF JJ HIckson to the Sacramento Kings for Omri Casspi and a conditional first round pick. The conditions on the first round pick are as follows: lottery-protected in 2012 (1-14). The pick is then protected in 2013 (1-13), 2014 (1-12) and 2015-2017 (1-10). If the pick is not conveyed by 2017, then Sacramento will convey its own 2017 second round draft pick to the Cavaliers protected (56-60). Here are my thoughts:

-First, I am not that happy with the protection parameters. I think having a lottery protected pick in 2012 is fair, considering how deep the draft class is. Someone at #14 would have been a #5 pick in the 2011 Draft. But the protections in 2013 and 2014 are killers. I think they should've been top 10 protected in 2013 and top 6 protected in 2014 and unprotected in 2015. The Kings have a solid young core in Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton, Hickson and Jimmer Fredette. I don't expect them to make the playoffs next year, but they could show some steep improvements in 2013. The problem with the Kings are that they have 2 black holes on defense in Cousins and Hickson and a ball hog in Evans. This team will score points, but will give up a lot of them too.

-With that said, I have learned from a source connected with the Cavs that Hickson's camp let the Cavs know months ago that he was unhappy here. That displeasure only rose after the Cavs drafted PF Tristian Thompson last week. Also, the belief out of Hickson's camp was that he wanted $10 million a year and the Cavs were not willing to pay him that. With that said, it becomes obvious why the Cavs traded Hickson. One, he was unhappy here. Two, he had unrealistic expectations for his new contract. Three, with the Cavs emphasis on defense (this was addressed by Byron Scott after the draft), Hickson was not going to last long here. Often times last year, he clashed with Byron Scott, struggled to maintain focus, was late on defensive rotations or completely missed them and drew stupid fouls many times. I like Hickson's athleticism, rebounding and offensive skills, but he really lacked basketball IQ and didn't seem to care much about defense. On a side note, the source noted that PG Ramon Sessions was next to go....

-The Cavs addressed one of the main weaknesses on the roster by trading for Casspi, who is a 6'9 SF. He is the first Israeli born player to play in the NBA. He scored 8 points per game and grabbed 4 rebounds a game last year, as he both started and came off the bench last year. Those numbers don't jump out at you but he is a solid 3 point shooter (37% from 3 in 2011), has good ball handling skills and can get up and down the court well. He isn't a great defender as he lacks lateral quickness and cannot create his own offense. Creating his own offense isn't a big concern with me as the Cavs have both Baron Davis and Kyrie Irving to help set up players. Casspi is a passionate player who needed a change of scenery from the disfunction that is the Sacramento Kings. He is still young at 23 years of age and will either start or get major minutes off the bench. While he may not have the upside of Hickson, he is a solid player who will listen to coaches and give maximum effort every night.

-I think the front office's reasoning behind this was that they wouldn't keep Hickson after 2011 and to try their best to get a 2012 first rounder. I doubt any team 1-20 would trade their first rounder for Hickson. People think that Grant could have done better with the draft pick, but if he could've, don't you think he would have? With that said, the Cavs knew Hickson wasn't going to stay, they added cheap young talent, that fits a need on the team. Also, the first round pick could become very valuable in 2013 or 2014. While this may sound bad, this further worsens the Cavs roster as Hickson is a better player than Casspi, so I am guessing the Cavs are in full tank mode. Most Cavs fans are trying to rebuild this team in a year or so by throwing out free agent signing idea for players such as Nene, Jason Richardson, Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler. We aren't going to trade for Dwight Howard or Chris Paul either folks. The only free agents the Cavs should sign should be young players to short term contracts(PF Brandan Wright and SF/PF Earl Clark are just some examples). No free agent will turn this team around serious contender anytime soon. We need to rebuild through the draft and trades. No need to try to hinder our future cap space for a short term fix. I am fine with tanking 2012, getting a high draft pick and hopefully landing a great young player. This model works, just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder.

-Another piece of news to consider, the NBA lockout is looming. If the Union and Owners cannot agree on a deal by midnight tonight, the Owners will lockout the players. Many analysts and observers are expecting a tough battle between the two sides, with no resolution in sight. If the 2012 NBA season is cancelled, the 2012 Draft odds would be the same as 2011. The Clippers would get their first rounder back, but the Cavs would have the 2nd best odds to get the #1 overall pick and would be guaranteed a top 4 pick. That means the Cavs would have a chance to get PF/C Anthony Davis, SF Harrison Barnes, SF Michael Gilchrist, SF/PF James McAdoo or SF Terrance Jones.

All in all, if I had to grade this trade right now, I would give it a B-. I thought the Cavs could have extracted more value for Hickson, but apparently the market was thin. Maybe teams had some leverage over the Cavs because of the fact that we drafted Tristian and already had Andy/Jamison at the 4 as well. While the protections aren't great, the Kings are a more talented team than people think. If this becomes a first rounder in 2013 or 2014, I will give it a higher grade. The Kings aren't going to be able to afford Hickson after this year, so this is basically a rental for them. Add in the fact we got a solid wing player and a possible lottery pick, it's not as bad of a deal as people believe. Kudos to Grant and Co. for continuing to gather first round picks as they already got one in the Baron Davis deal, 2 more firsts in the LeBron sign and trade (must be used from 2013-2017 but not in consecutive years) and another possible one in this deal. Besides Sessions, I am very interested in seeing what the Cavs can do with the $14.5 million trade exception (the exception cannot be used with another player, so we can't use the exception with Sessions). Let's see if they can get either a future first round draft pick for taking on a bad contract.

Thanks for reading. Go Cleveland!

-Raz

No comments: