Now, onto this whole free agency issue. The Nets, Knicks, Heat, and Clippers have all made their pitches to LeBron. I think the only real threats to getting LeBron are the Knicks and Bulls. I think the Cavs are the frontrunners, with the Bulls and Knicks being right behind. I think he will stay because he can make more money here in Cleveland ($30 million over 6 years, he gets a 2% higher raise per year), the Cavs were still one of the best teams in the NBA the past 2 years (won over 60 games past two years), the Cavs can still improve their roster through trades and the MLE (West expiring, Hickson, Andy), the Cavs have one of the best owners in the NBA in Dan Gilbert, and lastly this is his home. I'll go through each reason more in depth:
Money- We all know LeBron can make more money here in Cleveland than any other team can offer him due to the fact that the Cavs own his Bird-Rights. The reason why the free agent class this year features so many great players is because all these players want to get as much money as they can before the CBA expires next year. The CBA in 2011 is expected to be much more strict than the current one set in place. The hype surrounding this class has been crazy and media outlets made it seem like every free agent was going to change teams. Have you noticed that Rudy Gay is staying in Memphis? Joe Johnson is close to staying with the Hawks (every ESPN analyst was asked to predict where Johnson would go and none of them said the Hawks). Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki are both expected to stay with their respective teams.
Can you name me 2 or 3 superstars who have taken less money in the prime of their careers to play with other players? I didn't think so. People have to understand these superstars have huge egos and they won't take less money to be on another team. Passing up $30 million would be really hard for LeBron to do. Some have thrown the idea that LeBron will make more in endorsements by going to a larger market, but the amount of money made from endorsements is not as high as people think. With the way the economy has been the past 2 years many companies have been scaling back their marketing efforts. Money always talks, remember that.
Cavs Roster/Moves- The Cavs have won 127 games the past two years, the most of any team in the NBA. Yes, we failed in the playoffs but this past year I attribute the collapse to Mike Brown's inability to make adjustments and LeBron's elbow injury. The Cavs were the number 1 seed in the NBA playoffs for 2 years in a row. Everyone makes it seem like our roster is horrible, but we have Mo Williams, Andy, Jamison, and Hickson already. I don't think you can have a bad roster and win 127 games in 2 seasons.
The Cavs have flexibility to make moves. Just because we don't have cap space does not mean we cannot make moves. Again we have the $4.5 million super expiring of Delonte West, along with $7 million of other expirings. JJ Hickson is a very attractive commodity, and Andy is a coveted big man for many teams. Did you notice the Cavs haven't made any moves yet on any trades? I think they are saving all their assets to attempt to make a sign and trade for Chris Bosh. The Cavs sales pitch tomorrow will be, if you re-sign with the Cavs, we can get you Bosh if you convince him to come. Brian Windhorst of the PD stated that his sources said that the Raptors were interested in the assets the Cavs have in a potential sign and trade. Think about this, Chris Bosh wants to get the maximum deal (the one LeBron will get if he signs with the Cavs), and in order to do this you must sign and trade him. The Cavs can offer the package of Delonte (immediate cap relief), Andy (great defender, something the Raps needs), JJ Hickson (promising big man), Jamario Moon ($3 million expiring), and the rights to Christian Eyenga (the Raps were interested in him in 2009). Now what deal sounds better, the one I outlined above, or trading Bosh to the Heat for Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, and Joel Anthony? In addition to having attractive assets, the Cavs could take on a bad deal that the Raps have, something the Bulls and Heat cannot do (will ruin their cap space). This means a guy like Hedo Turkoglu, or Jose Calderon could be traded as well. The national media hasn't really covered this, but if LeBron can convince Bosh to come here, I could definitely see this happening. Also, I have to appreciate the patient approach the Cavs have taken this offseason. They haven't rushed into a trade and I have to think LeBron might have given them some sort of indication that he would stay, or else I think the Cavs would've made a move by now. Theres too much risk and uncertainty involved in keeping all your assets in an attempt to sign and trade for Chris Bosh.
Ownership- Dan Gilbert is not going to go down without a fight. He has been putting up signs all over downtown Cleveland that say "Home" on them. Everyone seems to discount the Cavs and assume that LeBron is gone, but Gilbert will pull out all the stops for LeBron. He has always been willing and able to make any move to improve the Cavs roster. The Cavs took on the deals of Jamison, Mo, and Shaq, along with re-signing Andy and Boobie. Never has Gilbert vetoed a deal due to money considerations and he is willing to do anything to improve the roster. We have had one of the highest payrolls in the NBA for the past two years, and we had the 3rd highest last year. It was noted that LeBron wanted a coach who had played in the NBA previously and he got just that in Byron Scott. Gilbert even signed up LeBron to go to a workshop for billionaire businessmen. Anything LeBron has ever wanted, Gilbert has given him and will continue to give him.
One of the concerns LeBron might have with the Bulls is that their owner Jerry Reinsdorf is known for being cheap and not paying the luxury tax. If the Bulls bring in two big players, LeBron has to wonder if the Bulls will pay Derek Rose or Joakim Noah when they become free agents in a couple years. Also, Reinsdorf and then GM Jerry Krause were known for never giving into any demand Michael Jordan had, and we all know LeBron likes to have some sort of say in personel moves. I think LeBron is very comfortable with Dan Gilbert going forward because Gilbert and Co. have always supported LeBron, and will continue to do everything to make the team better.
Home- I will never forget seeing a poster for his high school documentary "More Than A Game" which featured LeBron and the rest of the SVSM starters along with coach Dru Joyce. Right under it, it said "Loyalty Never Dies". LeBron has always talked about how loyalty is so important to him, and that he loves Akron so much. When he accepted his MVP awards, he did so in Akron. His brand is predicated on being the local hometown guy, and being loyal. Leaving Cleveland (which is right near Akron), would go against everything LeBron has said in the past 7 years. He would be at the level of Art Modell is he left, and I don't think he could ever come back. Cleveland fans have suffered so much already and LeBron is seen as our beaming light of hope. If he left it would hurt our sports scene greatly, and even downtown Cleveland. Imagine not having any of those bars in downtown Cleveland packed if the Cavs stopped making the playoffs. Cleveland fans have fiercely defended LeBron in everything he has done (not shaking hands in the Orlando series, poor performance in NBA finals, constantly talking about free agency), and I do believe that no set of fans will ever LeBron as much we as do. We have never had a superstar of this caliber in our own backyard, and we will do anything to keep him. I just hope LeBron's loyalty to Cleveland and Akron, will never die.....
Well, I know this has been a lot, but I think in the end LeBron stays. When you add it all up the Cavs can get better, pay LeBron more, he can stay home with a great owner and organization. I just don't see LeBron passing up money to play elsewhere.
When looking at the Bulls and Knicks, here is what I think. The Bulls have a great player in Derek Rose and a solid player in Joakim Noah. Luol Deng is a good starter, and thats it. As I outlined above, they have a cheap owner who does not yield power to superstars. The Bulls can trade Deng and a couple other pieces to the Raptors in a sign and trade but he will offer no salary cap relief (3 years left at $12 mil a year). Plus, I think people overrate Joakim Noah as he averaged 11 pts 11 reb. a game this past year. He had one good playoff series and everyone believes he is an amazing player. Also, Rose is a PG who needs the ball in his hands to be successful, and we know how much LeBron loves having the ball in his hand. Rose and LeBron are both drive and kick players, and they don't have any shooters on the team now. The Knicks roster is Danilo Galinari, Toney Douglas, and Wilson Chandler. Even if you added 2 max players, the team wouldn't be as good as the Lakers. There would be no depth, and I don't think LeBron and Bosh would play for less than full max. money. Their owner James Dolan was the man who hired Isiah Thomas as GM and coach, enough said.....
I think by next week we might know what LeBron will do, but who knows how long he will drag this out. What will everyone else do? I think Amare will go to the Knicks, Wade will stay in Miami, and Bosh to me is the wildcard. Bosh will either go to the Bulls or Cavs depending on what LeBron does. If LeBron stays I think it enhances our chances to get Bosh because he wants a 6 year max deal and we can give him that in a sign and trade. I can see Carlos Boozer and David Lee going to the Nets, Bulls, and Heat if they strikeout on LeBron and Bosh. It's going to be a pretty wild weekend, we're going to hear a lot of speculation going forward. Remember, its always more news worthy to report that LeBron might leave and is leaning towards somewhere else, than if he stayed in Cleveland. Lets just hope LeBron stays at home.
Thanks for reading guys, go Cleveland!
-Raz
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