-The Cavs again are going to deal with a lightning quick PG in Rajon Rondo. In my opinion he is probably the best PG in the Eastern Conference. He can defend, steal, handle the ball, and penetrate. He can't shoot if his life depended on it, but he is still very effective. It took the Cavs a couple games to realize it but putting Mo Williams on a quick PG will not work. Look for Parker, Moon, and LeBron to take turns guarding Rondo, as their size and length can bother him. They will probably give him a lot of space when they guard him, in hopes of baiting him to shoot jumpers.
-The Celtics are going to try to make this a very physical series. They cannot run up and down the floor as well as the Cavs can, and besides Tony Allen and Rondo, they don't have any athletic players on their team. Playing JJ Hickson and Jamario Moon more minutes will help the Cavs. When the Cavs beat the Celtics in Boston a couple months ago, they played without Shaq and had a very small and quick lineup out there.
-LeBron's elbow should be fine. They took an MRI on it on Monday and there was no structural damage. I am sure he had some flare up, and that it is some tendinitis. Rest and ice will do the trick. The more rest he has the better he will be.
-The Celtics are not as good as they used to be as KG, Pierce, and Allen have all lost a step. LeBron can drive to the basket anytime he wants to against this team. KG no longer has the explosiveness around the basket that he had, Pierce has struggled with injuries, and Allen's shooting percentages have decreased (36% from 3 this year, 40% career average).
-The Cavs need to have Mo and Parker hit their 3's, force the Celtics to shoot jumpers, play small, and defend the pick and roll well. LeBron and Jamison are going to get their touches and points, but the Cavs need to run a little more this series, and make their outside shots. The more we keep Rondo out of the paint, the better off the Cavs will be. Rose found many open players when he drove, and the Celtics have better players who Rondo can dish to.
-Winning the first 2 games of the series will be huge. Why? The Cavs have won once in Boston in the last 3 years. While the Celtics did not have a good home record (24-17), we cannot afford to lose games in Cleveland and shift momentum to the Celtics. We saw how the Cavs fared after they lost game 1 versus the Magic last year.
-Getting Shaq some touches would be nice but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it. The Celtics have a pretty good low post defender in Kendrick Perkins, length with KG and Rasheed and the Cavs did play better against the Celtics after Shaq got hurt. Having Andy and JJ being active down low will be key.
-The Celtics bench is a pretty average. Rasheed Wallace looks finished as he is content shooting 3's, Marquis Daniels is just average, Glen Davis provides energy, Tony Allen provides athleticism, Michael Finley is on his last legs, and Nate Robinson has been in and out of the rotation. As you can see this group of guys are not that athletic, and it is imperative that the Cavs run the ball.
-This team has a lot of veteran experience and they won the NBA championship two years ago. I don't think they will be a pushover at all. They have a lot of guys who have hit clutch shots (Finley, Pierce, Davis, Allen) and the Cavs cannot take them lightly. The Celtics know that this is their final chance of winning an NBA championship as Ray Allen will become a free agent, and Paul Pierce can become a free agent.
-The internal problems of the Celtics could be a benefit to the Cavs. There has been tension within the team as Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo have been vocal about this displeasure with the team. You already have 2 fiery personalities in KG and Sheed, so things could get ugly....
-Again, the Cavs cannot take this team lightly. They need to come out and play with fire and intensity for every minute of the game. They cannot coast through these games because the Celtics have the talent that will make you pay. The Cavs need to take their defense to another level and look interested in the game. When the Cavs are locked in and focused, they are very very hard to beat.
-We have homecourt advantage, size, athleticism, a solid supporting cast, and LeBron James. Mo played pretty well the first 4 games against the Bulls (16 and 5), Jamison has been averaging 19 and 7, and Shaq had 14 points and 8 rebounds in game 5. If the Cavs continue to get consistent production from these 3, along with some clutch shots from Parker, Moon, and West, then I think the Cavs will be fine.
-My fear is that the Cavs will loathe and take some quarters off, which could cost them a game. If you thought the Bulls didn't give you a good fight, I can guarantee you the Celtics won't stop fighting. Also, free throw shooting has been a concern, and the Cavs need to continue to practice on free throws. It hurts seeing Jamison make an amazing flip shot or LeBron finish at the basket with two guys in front of him, only to see them clank a free throw. They need to step to the line, relax, and make their free throws.
-The Celtics have a lot of experience, but I think the talent drop off with the Big 3 is too steep to overcome, along with the fact that their bench is not as good as it used to be. 2 years ago, the Cavs had Delonte West as LeBron's #2 option, Z and Ben Wallace starting, and Sasha Pavlovic playing solid minutes. Now, Delonte comes off the bench, Z barley plays, a guy named Shaq and Jamison start for us, KG/Pierce/Allen have all lost a step, Leon Powe now plays for the Cavs, James Posey left for free agency, Eddie House got traded, and PJ Brown has since retired. LeBron himself took the series to 7 games two years ago, and I think the Cavs have a much better supporting cast, and the Celtics are just not as good as they used to be. With all that said, Cavs in 6.
Thanks for reading and go Cleveland!
-Raz
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