Looking Forward....

After last nights disappointing loss, the Cavs have a very big offseason to look forward to. LeBron can opt out of his contract in 2010, and this could be the Cavs last chance to put together a championship caliber team for LeBron. Heading forward, I don't have any inside information about what the Cavs are going to do, but I will try to make some educated guesses. Our biggest needs going into the offseason are a tough low post scorer, a tall small forward who can guard the perimeter, and a backup PG. We saw how Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum torched us in the post, we saw the mismatches the Magic gave us on the perimeter, the limited production we got in the post from our bigs was just awful, and we have no one to handle the ball with our 2nd unit.

Offseason Summary
-The Cavs have a lot of salaries coming off the book. Wally ($14 million), Joe Smith ($1.2 million), Eric Snow ($7 million), Lorenzen Wright ($1.2 million), are all off of our books. This brings our salary cap number down to $71.8 million. Anderson will opt out, which brings our cap number down to $65 million. I think the Cavs will try to bring Anderson back, but on a budget. They don't want to pay him too much because they need to save some cap room to get another superstar with LeBron in 2010. Z will pick up his player option, so we stay at $65 million. Sasha Pavlovic's contract is partially guaranteed, and he can be paid $1.5 million dollars and be let go, or we can pay him $4.95 million next year and keep him.
-The wild card here is that Ben Wallace is strongly considering retiring. If he retires he can do one of many things, this includes walking away from his $14 million salary next year, he can negotiate a buyout, or he can play it out. If Wallace was to walk away from his contract completely, it was bring our salary cap number down to about $48 million dollars. This would bring us under the projected $58 million salary cap. The probably won't happen, but the Cavs will have some flexibility if a buyout is agreed upon, and if Sasha is bought out. If Wallace retires, we can still trade his $14 million salary but he can negotiate a buyout with a team we trade him to. Ferry has to decide if he can get a better player in free agency or through a trade. In a trade it would save the team we are trading him to a lot of money because they would be trading away $14 million dollars worth of salary, but only pay the buyout amount. This makes him very valuable.
-Draft Picks: The Cavs have 2 draft picks in the upcoming draft. We own the 30th and 46th picks in this draft. While this is considered a weak draft class, it still has some solid players in it. One of the needs the Cavs need to address is a backup PG. Daniel Gibson won't cut it, and we have no one to handle the ball with our 2nd unit. This draft class is loaded with good PG's. This includes players such as Brandon Jennings, Ricky Rubio, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holliday, Johnny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Stephen Curry, Patrick Mills, and Curtis Jerrells. The only guys I see falling to the Cavs are Mills and Jerrells. Also, there is a glut of athletic SF's in this draft, it includes DaJuan Summers, Sam Young, and Damion James. All 3 of these guys are seasoned players, and they could contribute early in their NBA careers. These guys could be around at #30.
-There aren't many good bigmen in this draft, and since we are drafting so low, we probably would have to take a developmental prospect with our 46th pick. A tough bigman is needed to replace Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, possibly even Andy. Our chances of finding one late in the draft aren't good, so I think trading one of our picks is a possibility.
-The Cavs still have a very valuable trading piece in JJ Hickson. His name was tossed around in a few deals last year, and I expect to hear the same this offseason. I believe he will only be traded if we land a big name.
-Chinese investors bought a 15% stake in the team last week. This is huge because it will give us immediate capital for the team. This will give us financial flexibility, and it will allow us to take back some bad contracts in our attempts to land a superstar next to LeBron.
-With the U.S. economy still reeling from the current recession, a lot of NBA teams are trying to cut salaries. The New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns, and Milwaukee Bucks are all trying to save as much money because they have felt the pinch of this recession. The Cavs on the other hand have lots of salaries coming off their books, an injection of cash into the team from the Chinese investors, and an owner in Dan Gilbert who is willing to spend money. This could be very beneficial to us because teams will be looking to dump salary, and the best way for teams to dump salary is to pair them with a great player, and receive an expiring contract in return (Ben Wallace/Sasha).

Possible Names to Consider:
-Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Utah Jazz- This one is my wild card player I think the Cavs will go after. He fits the bill of exactly what we need. He is tall (6'9), plays great defense, can drive to the hoop, and he is very energetic. He is the type of guy who can matchup very well against a Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkgolu. He would be replacing Sasha Pavlovic and Wally. The reasons why I don't think we would get him though is because his contract goes past 2010, and he is making $16 million next year, and $17 million in 2010, which would kill our 2010 plans. I think if the Jazz got a good offer for AK47, they could trade him because the Jazz struggled last year in the playoffs, and they have to decide on what they are going to do with Paul Milsap, and Carlos Boozer becoming free agents, and Mehmet Okur having an early termination option as well.
-Shaq, C, Phoenix Suns- The Cavs tried acquiring him at the trade deadline, and it did not work out. I still believe the Suns are going to try to trade Shaq because they know they won't win with him, their owner Robert Sarver is hurting in this bad economy, and their window of opportunity for winning a championship is basically shut. There was even talk of them trading Amare Stoudemire in February! The Cavs will probably have to part with some draft picks, Ben's contract, Sasha, and maybe JJ Hickson. Shaq would give us an immediate post threat that teams would have to account for. Also, his contract expires in 2010 which is huge. I think Shaq would be great in Cleveland because of his ability to score in the post, and rebound. While Shaq is old (37 years old), he put up 18 points and 8 rebounds per game last year. His PER went from 17.07 the year before to 22.33 this past year. When Shaq is healthy and motivated, he is still a force to be reckoned with.
-Chris Kaman, C, LA Clippers- The only reason I have him here is because the Clippers will be taking Blake Griffin with the first pick in the NBA Draft, and Zach Randolph's contract is impossible to trade, and Marcus Camby has an expiring deal, thus Kaman becomes expendable. Clippers owner Donald Sterling is always looking to save money, and Kaman is set to make $10 million next year. Kaman has good post skills, and he is a great rebounder, he just isn't that great of a defender. The reason why I don't think it would happen is because his contract goes past 2010. The Cavs need to decide if they can get a guy now that can help them win a championship, or get someone who might not be as good but have a 2010 friendly contract. This is a big issue.
-Chris Bosh, F, Toronto Raptors- If the Cavs get this guy, we win the championship. Its that simple. I know I have listed Bosh before, but according to a report from the NY Daily News, people inside the Raptors organization are realizing that they might have to trade Bosh. Toronto has no young talent around him, limited cap room this year, and it might make sense to trade for him before he becomes a free agent in 2010. Bosh can score downlow, he is big (6'11), and he is a great defender, who played with LeBron on Team USA this past year. I really think the Cavs have a chance at getting this guy too. Think about this, Pau Gasol was traded for Kwame Brown (expiring deal), Javaris Crittenton (young PG, with the Wizards now), 2 first round picks, and Marc Gasol. Marc Gasol is the only solid piece to come of that deal. Kevin Garnett was traded for Al Jefferson (great young player), Ryan Gomes (bench player), Sebastian Telfair (bum), Gerald Green (he rarely plays for Dallas), and Theo Ratliff (throw in). The Cavs can offer a first round pick this year, and in 2011, JJ Hickson, expiring deal of Ben Wallace, and either Sasha or Darnell, and we can take back the bad contract of Jason Kapono as well. The Raptors would save loads of money, get a promising young bigman, draft picks, and another young player. The only team I can think of that could do such a trade is Portland, but it makes no sense for them to do it because they have a young PF in LaMarcus Aldridge and a young C in Greg Oden. It will be interesting to see what happens.
-Tyson Chandler, C, New Orleans Hornets- The reason why I have him on the list is because the Hornets tried trading him at the trade deadline for 2 expiring deals (Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith), so obviously they are having financial difficulties. Chandler is a good low post defender, can block shots, and rebound. He has excellent size at 7'0, and he can run the floor. His contract does go past 2010, but he would give us great size downlow to defend, and his offensive game is not that polished. We again have the expiring deal of Ben Wallace to work with, along with Sasha Pavlovic's expiring deal. Taking back a bad contract would probably be required to pull off this trade.
-Jason Kidd, PG, Dallas Mavericks- Kidd is a free agent, and with so much cap space coming off of our books, the Cavs could make a small splash in free agency. With few teams having cap space, a tough U.S. economy where NBA teams are looking to save, free agents won't be getting huge deals we've seen in the past. We would probably use our mid level exception to get Kidd. He said earlier in the year he could see himself playing here, and while he isn't as good as he use to be, he can shoot the open 3, find and help set up his teammates. He takes very good care of the ball, and he is a true floor general. He played with LeBron on Team USA this past summer, and LeBron lobbied to get him in the 2008 trade deadline. There is a definite chance it could happen. I would love to see Jason Kidd as our backup PG.
-Matt Barnes, SF, Phoenix Suns- Barnes will be a free agent as well this offseason. He would fit our need for a backup SF. He is 6'7, extremely athletic, and he can defend. If the price is right, I think the Cavs will take a look.
-Ron Artest, SF, Houston Rockets- This would be a huge long-shot. Artest is a free agent, but his price tag will be high. He is an excellent, tough defender, with great size (6'8) and solid offensive skills. He would be a nightmare matchup for most teams because the Cavs would then have 6'9 LeBron paired with 6'8 Artest in the frontcourt. I only see Artest coming here if the Cavs are under the cap, and if Artest does not get the offers he is looking for.
-Lamar Odom, F, LA Lakers- Odom is a free agent this offseason as well, but his price tag will be somewhat high as well. He has great size (6'11), speed, athleticism, and he can score both inside and outside. He can defend the perimeter and when he puts his mind to it, he can rebound as well. He is versatile enough to play SF and PF as well. The Lakers have to decide what to do with Odom, and Trevor Ariza (he is a free agent too) because both are very valuable to the Lakers. Much like Artest, I only see Odom coming here if we are under the salary cap, and he doesn't have any good offers from good teams.
-Brandon Bass, PF, Dallas Mavericks- I love Brandon Bass because he is a tough, physical bigman, who can grab rebounds. He will be a free agent this offseason, and we could use a part of our mid level exception to sign him. He would be a solid bigman off the bench, and while he wouldn't solve our problems of low post scoring, he would give us much needed depth, as Joe Smith did last year.

Again, I have no inside information on any of this stuff, but I these are just my thoughts. A lot of this offseason is going to hinge on what Ben Wallace decides to do, and what direction the Andy negotiations go. If I am the Cavs, I bring Andy back only at the right price. He is a young bigman, and if his offensive game continues to develop he could be a very reliable asset to this team. Wally I wouldn't bring back because he is getting old, and he is not athletic enough to defend anymore. I would bring Joe Smith back at a very cheap price. Depending on what the trade market is like, I might hold on to Sasha because his deal expires, and he is still a young player (25 years old). I will write a NBA Draft preview later this month, contingent that the Cavs keep their picks! Thanks for reading!

-Raz