Monday, January 5, 2009

Lets make a deal....

Hello again. After the struggles the Cavs have faced in the recent days (Losses to Miami and Washington) I said in the beginning of the year that the Cavs are in need of another swingman/post player. With the trade deadline 45 days away, the rumor mill will continue to get warm as we go along. I am dedicating this blog to trade ideas that I think the Cavaliers should consider. Us fans really only know what our news networks report to us (ESPN, The Plain Dealer, The News Herald, Yahoo Sports, Realcavsfans.com, Realgm.com, Hoopshype.com, Hoopsworld.com, among others). So considering how some NBA teams are doing, I am going to list players that are on losing teams, that could become available. As I explained before, the Cavaliers have an expiring contract worth $14 million to use (Wally Z), 2 cheap rookie contracts, first round draft picks, and Anderson Varaejo to trade. The Cavs are going to keep Eric Snow on the roster and after the 40th game, the insurance claim will go through, and the Cavs will save about $11 million. These are strictly recommendations, and ideas of mine. By no means do I have insider information, and I am just trying to be logical. These trades are just ideas, they could be worked out in numerous ways. I am trying to make a trade that would make sense for both the Cavaliers and the other team. Also, if the Cavaliers do make a trade, they are going to go for a "homerun" a Pau Gasol type of player. Another notion to consider as well is the Cavaliers do not want to acquire a player with a large contract that goes past 2010. The Cavaliers want to be able to sign a superstar in 2010 along with LeBron. If we keep the team as is, we will be able to do this. Some names include Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire. So it is important to look at players who have short contracts, and if they do have a longer contract, that it is for not a lot of money. I am sure around deadline time there will be a few "homeruns" out there.....

Player #1: Gerald Wallace, F, Charlotte Bobcats
Why would the Bobcats trade him? Well for one, the team is going nowhere. New coach Larry Brown is going to overhaul this roster and he already started with the Jason Richardson trade. He is going to want to trade for draft picks, and cap space. He has a contract that goes for 4 more years, he is 26, and the team won't be contending for at least 2-3 years. Why pay a guy lots of money when you know your going no where, especially when you know you can get some young talent and draft picks for him? The only drawback I see from Wallace is that his contract goes past 2010 but it is for only $9 million at 2010. It will be tough, but doable for the Cavs to make cap room for another max contract in 2010. Carroll's contract is at about $5 million, and it could probably be moved. Also, Wallace has had a history of injuries as he has missed an average of 17 games the last 4 seasons. I feel that he would be a second option for the Cavs if he did indeed become available. If the Cavs do acquire him, we would immediatley become title contenders because he can come off the bench and guard either Ray Allen or Paul Pierce, Kobe Bryant or Lamar Odom. He could even play some PF as well. He strengthens our second squad, defense, and he adds more scoring punch. He is the ideal swingman the Cavs could use. Here is a deal that could be plausible, and it does indeed workout (I checked all these trades on ESPN Trade Machine)

Cavs acquire:
F Gerald Wallace (4 years left)
F Matt Carroll (5 years left)

Bobcats acquire:
Wally Z (1 year left)
Darnell Jackson (3 years but cheap contract at $500K)
1st round pick in 2011

As I stated earlier, the Bobcats will acquire a first round pick, young talent (Jackson), and cap space ($14 million). The Bobcats get rid of the long contract of Carroll. The Cavs will pick this contract up, and it is relatively cheap at $5 million. The positive of this trade is we lose virtually no front court depth (Hickson, AV both stay), we acquire a lights out shooter in Carroll (Career 40% 3 Point shooter), and the swingman and size (6'7) needed to defend and score. Again the only drawback of this trade is that it makes cap space tough in 2010 to sign another max contract next to LeBron. I would definitely love to see this trade happen because we add depth, and we give up virtually nothing on our current roster. Also, we aren't shattering the "team chemistry" we have built. We are trading away 2 bench players, thats it. I would love to see Gerald Wallace in a Cavs uniform because he is young, and he can improve this team greatly. This isn't going to be a repeat of last years trade where we trade half our roster.

Odds of Wallace coming? 40%

Player #2: John Salmons, F, Sacramento Kings
Why would the Kings trade Salmons? The Kings would trade Salmons because he is 29 years old, the team is re-building around guys like Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, and Jason Thompson. They have no reason to keep him around, and they are better off trading him for an expiring deal and a draft pick. Salmons is a guy who can do a little bit of everything. He is 6'6, can score, can shoot, and can defend. He is averaging 19 ppg, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists a game. He would be another guy who could add depth to the team, at virtually no cost to the Cavaliers depth. My only problem with this trade is, again his deal goes 3 years. Salmons' contract will only be worth around $5 million in 2010, and Thomas' contract will expire in 2010. So the contract situation is a little easier here, as the Cavs could probably find a way to shed that money. Again, this makes free agent signings in 2010 tough, but it can be done. Heres a scenario that works out:

Cavs acquire:
John Salmons, F (3 years)
Kenny Thomas, F (2 years)

Kings acquire:
Wally Z (1 year)
1st round pick in 2009

Again, the Cavs give up just one draft pick, but they have to swallow the long contract of Kenny Thomas, who is worthless. Again, this deal can increase the chances of the Cavs winning a championship. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing this deal occur but I'd rather have Wallace.

Odds of Salmons coming to Cleveland? 50%

Player #3: Chris Bosh, F, Toronto Raptors
Why in the world would the Raptors trade Bosh? Well for one, Toronto sucks. Their record is 14-20, and they are not favored to make the playoffs. Toronto also knows that Bosh is probably going to leave in 2010. I know he can make more money in Toronto, but he wants to win. He is not going to stay in a losing situation in Toront. Aside from Jose Calderon, what good, promising young talent does Toronto have? Andrea Bargnani? No. Joey Graham? No. Nathan Jawai? No. Theres not enough young talent on this team to develop and build around Bosh to contend by 2010. Since the Raptors probably know this, don't you think they should trade him and get something for him while they can? If the Cavs added Bosh, we would be title contenders for the next two years. He can shoot the jumper, he is a great rebounder, defender, dunker, with amazing post skills. He has the ability to carry a team on his back. Add him with LeBron James, and its over. Also, this would increase the chances of LeBron resigning because the Cavs will have acquired one of the best players in the league. Both Bosh and LeBron are eligible to resign extensions in 2010, and they can sign them together. Why would Bosh leave here if he has LeBron to play with, especially since he can sign a max extension here. Also, LeBron will make more money and have an extra year here in Cleveland! Here is the trade scenario I worked out:

Cavs acquire:
Chris Bosh, F (2 years left)
Kris Humphries F or Andrea Bargnani F, (which ever Toronto will give us, 2 years left)
Jason Kapono, F (3 years left)

Toronto acquires:
Anderson Varaejo, F (2 years left, with an opt out clause)
Wally Z (1 year left)
JJ Hickson (2 years left, with a team option)
Darnell Jackson (3 years but cheap contract at $500K)
2 First round picks (2009 and 2011)

Toronto acquires Varaejo, and they could probably re-sign him because they will have $14 million cleared off their cap, and they will have additional money for free agents. Also, they will have much cap room to work with as well. He is a promising young player, and he has potential on offense. Teams have already seen him go nuts on the boards, defend, and play with endless energy. Toronto also acquires a very young big man in Hickson, who has shown great promise, but is still raw. If he develops into the player he could be, the Raptors will have themselves a great big man. Jackson is a solid youngster who can develop into a good rotation player. He seems to have good basketball IQ and he is a good defender. Also, Toronto will acquire 2 first round picks that can be used as either trade pieces, or to bring in young talent.

This would be an absolutely dream scenario for the Cavs. All three of the players they would be acquiring would have contracts ending the summer of 2010. The only problem I see with this trade is that Toronto won't put him on the block. I really see a 10% chance that Toronto takes calls for Bosh. If they do, think about contending teams that can offer young talent, draft picks, and an expiring deal? Boston? They have 5 expiring deals (one of them being Rondo) totaling about $6.5 million. Wally's contract itself is worth $14 million. They traded their draft picks in the Garnett deal, and they have no young talent that is worth of pulling Bosh away. Detroit? They have two expiring deals of AI and Rasheed and draft picks, but they have no young talent they can trade away that is comparable to our package of AV, Hickson, Jackson. Orlando? They have no need for him because of Dwight Howard. Again, they have no real young talent to trade away, Rashard Lewis has a huge contract and is 28, and their expiring contracts are worth about $8 million combined. Atlanta? Now this is a team that might be able to pull off a deal because they have Mike Bibby's expiring deal worth $14 million, they have draft picks to use, and they have young talent to trade (Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams). This Atlanta team has developed chemistry over the last year, after nearly beating the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. I doubt that their GM Rick Sund will want to part with one of those young players, along with Bibby. So in conclusion, I feel that the Cavaliers can make a serious offer to the Raptors that will maybe make them think about trading Bosh. Do I think this trade will happen? No. Do I want it to happen? Yes. Could it happen? Never say never......

Odds of Bosh comming to Cleveland? 10%.

Now I only listed three guys, and I went into a lot of detail. There are other guys that people will hear about, but I don't think the Cavs will trade for them. These names include:

Vince Carter, G, Nets: He is 31, large contract (4 more years), he is a ball hog, and hes not a good defender.

Michael Redd, G, Bucks: He is 29, his contract goes for another 3 years (max deal), and all he can really do is shoot. His 3 point percentage this year is low for his career numbers at 34%, and he is an oft injured player.

Richard Jefferson, F, Bucks: He is 28, his contract goes for another 3 years, and he doesn't seem to be a player who plays to his potential. I feel that the Cavaliers can get a much better player than him, and someone who can defender better than him.

Elton Brand, PF, 76'ers: His contract his long, and it is for a lot of money too (max deal). Currently he is out for a month with a shoulder injury, and he missed all last year with an injury. He is 29 years old, and he would hamstring us come 2010 because his contract is worth so much money in 2010, unlike Salmons and Wallace.

Luol Deng, F, Bulls: I would love to see Deng in a Cavs uniform, but I don't see it. He has not played well with Derek Rose as he is posting career lows. This comes after he signed a 6 year extension this offseason. Again, his contract hamstrings us come 2010, and it would take more than an expiring deal and draft picks to get him.

Andre Iguodala, G, 76'ers: I don't see him getting traded because he is the centerpiece of that team. He did sign an extension this summer for 6 years for a lot of money. He is struggling this year, and he would not fit in with the slower pace of offense that the Cavaliers play. He is more of an up-tempo player. Again, he hurts us come 2010 because of his long and expensive deal.

Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison, F, Wizards: I don't think these guys will get traded because it won't make sense for the Wizards. Even if we do trade for one of them, they won't have immediate cap relief for next year. This is because Gilbert Arenas' max contract increases, along with Andray Blache, Mike James, and numerous other players on the Wizards. Jamison would be a great fit, but I would be scared he signed a big contract for 4 years $50 million, and he is 32. Butler would be nice, but again, he would hamstring us come 2010 because he will be paid $10 million that summer, and there will be no immediate cap relief for the Wizards if they deal him.

Stephen Jackson, G, Golden State: He is a great player who defends, scores, and has played with Mike Brown before. The problem I see with him is he just signed a 5 year extension. He is 30 years old, and he probably will play at the level he is at for another 2-3 years. His contract would be hard to move before 2010.

Chris Kaman, C, Clippers: Heres a guy who I am kind of undecided about. He puts up good numbers, hustles, and he plays well. I am not sure giving up Wally's contract, with a draft pick is worth him though. I don't think he would be the missing piece to a championship for us. I don't see him making as big of an impact as other guys who we could get. Also, his contract runs past 2010, so cross him off the list....

Marcus Camby, C, Clippers: Out of all the guys I list here, I believe he has the best chance of being traded to the Cavs. He is a great defender, rebounder, and shot blocker. He is almost Ben Wallace version 2.0, with some offense. Another reason he could be traded is because he is on a losing team, with a big contract. His contract runs for only 2 more years, and it expires in the summer of 2010. Like Kaman, I am not sure if Camby would make us a championship contender because of his offensive liabilities. I am not sure if he is worth Wally and a 1st rounder for him and a longer contract either, especially if Wallace or Salmons become available at that price. I wouldn't mind having him, but there will be better options out there.

Mike Miller, G, Timberwolves: I don't really like Miller that much because he is mostly a shooter. He is good at it, but thats all he can really do. He has ok handles, and is an above average athlete. Occasionally he will drive to the hoop, but he is mostly a shooter. He is shooting 37% from 3 point land this year, and he is only averaging 10 points a game. His contract does end in 2010, but he isn't worth Wally and a first rounder. He would basically duplicate what Wally does, just a little younger (he is 28). Also, shooting guard isn't a need for us, as he can't guard small forwards or power forwards.

As you have noticed, the guys on this list are all on teams that have losing records and they probably won't make the playoffs.
Well thats about it folks. I know I threw a lot at you. If you have any comments or names you want to add please let me know. I would love to hear what you all have to say. Thanks again, and go Cleveland!

-Raz

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