Alright, now that I have written about the Cavs' rash of moves, lets move onto the Indians. While most Indians fans have been blasting owner Larry Dolan for these trades, I don't put as much blame on him as others do. The real problem is the system of baseball and the salary structures. There is no salary cap like there is in the NFL and NBA. The Indians started the year with an $81 million payroll, good for 15th in the league. Thats pretty good considering how cheap the Dolan's have been since rebuilding began in 2001. When the team started losing, people stopped going to the games, thus revenues decrease and payroll must be cut. When you are losing money, you have to start cutting salary. Like any business, when the business is in the red, you have to start making cuts, and thats what the Indians did. Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, and Mark DeRosa are all very solid players with good contracts, thats why they were so attractive at the deadline. If the MLB had a salary cap, all teams would be able to spend the same amount of money. This would increase parity in the league, and you wouldn't see the same teams in the playoffs every year, teams wouldn't have to rebuild every 2 years, and in the case of the NBA, if a team wanted to go over the salary cap, the teams would have to pay a tax for it. With the MLB, there are no limits, and this is the problem.
Now looking at these trades, many people believe we got ripped off in these deals, but I think the DeRosa, and Victor trades are going to look the best in the end. So far, we traded Mark DeRosa, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt, Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, and Carl Pavano for a total of 10 minor leaguers. In the DeRosa trade we got reliever Chris Perez, who has been solid this month (2.57 ERA) and minor leaguer Jess Todd. Perez seems to be finding a groove in the back end of the bullpen, and Todd is ranked as the 4th best prospect in the Cardinals organization this past year by Baseball America. The reason I believe this trade will go down as one of the better ones is the Indians got a good young reliever in Perez (only 24), and a solid pitching prospect in Todd.
In the Victor trade, it was very sad to see him go. He seemed like he truly wanted to be here and he even cried in his final interview as an Indian. The Tribe recieved pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Notice the theme here again? Masterson is a young pitcher (24 years old), who can be a solid #3 guy in a rotation. Hagadone is ranked as the Red Sox 3rd best prospect, and Price is still in single A. The Indians got themselves young pitchers again. The other trades the Indians made were Garko being dealt for minor league pitcher Scott Barnes. Garko never impressed me that much here in Cleveland, he just never seemed to be consistent. Barnes is ranked as the 9th best prospect in the Giants organization. Carl Pavano was dealt to the Twins for a player to be named later, and Betancourt was traded to the Rockies for minor league pitcher Conor Graham, who is projected to be a back of the bullpen reliever. Betancourt was not going to be around next year because he has a $5 million team option and the Indians weren't going to pick it up.
Finally, the Cliff Lee trade. I think this trade will either be a complete steal, or a complete disaster. Lee and Francisco was traded for Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson, and shortstop Jason Donald. Knapp is the key to this deal. He is an 18 year old starter who throws 98 mph. All four of these guys are top 10 prospects in the Phillies organization. Everyone is making a big deal out of us not getting pitchers JA Happ or Kyle Drabek, but the truth of the matter is if we wanted one of those guys, the Phillies could've just traded one of them for Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays wanted both, but the Phillies wanted to keep one of them. Halladay can be seen as leverage for the Phillies because he was seen as the superior pitcher to Lee. Take Halladay off the market, and Lee is the only great starter in the market and his price will increase because he will be the lone pitcher in demand. In terms of the rest of the deal, Carrasco is struggling in AAA now, but there is some hope he can be a solid starter in the big leagues. Trading for a catcher seems pointless because of the fact we have Carlos Santana (considered a top 3 prospect in our organization), and we already have Asdrubal Cabrera, Beau Mills, Carlos Rivero, and Lonnie Chisenall ready to take positions in the middle and corner infield spots, so why trade for shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson? The Indians could flip those 2 prospects, but it seems unlikely. Those two pieces confused me, I would've rather had another pitching prospect or an outfielder.
Now looking back on all this, we acquired 2 major league ready pitchers, and 7 minor league pitchers, 2 position players, and a player to be named later. Not only did we cut our payroll from $81 million to $64 million through the trades, Our management team thought we would have 2.2 million for attendance this year, but it looks like the number is going to be between 1.8-1.9 million. We are projected to lose about $16 million this year. Add in the fact that our front office has not been able to scout and develop any pitching talent in the Shapiro regime, you can see why we made some of our moves. The Indians farm system has been depleted of pitchers. Aside from CC Sabathia and Jeremy Guthrie, the Indians have not drafted, signed, and developed a solid starting pitcher in the past 8 years. Guys such as Adam Miller, JD Martin, and Chuck Lofgren were just some names of Indians pitchers who were supposed to develop but never did. Mark Shapiro and his scouting staff have not done a good job of developing young pitchers, but I do trust Shapiro to be able to find good prospects through trades (Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, Shin Soo Choo, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Ludwick). I think in the end, we might not see the Bartolo Colon trade all over again, but I feel that with so many highly regarding pitching prospects being brought over, a couple of them have to pan out and do well. Remember, we also have outfielders Michael Brantley, and Matt LaPorta waiting in the wings with catcher Carlos Santana. These guys were all considered to be the top prospects in their organizations, and they will make contributions in the near future. While we didn't get the one hot name like JA Happ, Doug Drabek, or Clay Bucholz, we got a good collection of young pitching talent to use in the future (2011 looks like a good starting point). Brooklyn Dodgers GM Branch Rickey once said that with pitchers its always better to have "Quantity over quality".
Thats all folks! Next time I will be writing a few thoughts on the Browns, and the recent signing of PF Leon Powe by the Cavs. Thanks again!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Long Time (Part 1)
Hello everyone, it has been a pretty longtime since I last wrote. In between my laziness, and work I never got around to this. I also wanted to wait till the NBA offseason was complete, and the MLB trade deadline to finish before writing. Since both of those have finished, I will share with you my thoughts.
Cavs Offseason
-The addition of Shaq was a great move in my opinion. As long as he stays in shape he is good for 15 points and 6 rebounds a game. Since Carlos Boozer, the Cavs have not had a serious low post threat. Shaq will be much better against Dwight Howard one on one, but he will struggle defending the pick and roll.
-Teams will now have to respect Shaq by doubleteaming him. This leaves shooters such as Daniel Gibson, Anthony Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Danny Green open. Remember how well Damon Jones and Jason Kapono shot with Shaq on their teams? Kapono shot 40% and 51% from 3 in his 2 years with Shaq, and Jones shot 43% in his lone season with Shaq. Kapono is a career 45% shooter from 3, and Jones is 39%. Yeah, Shaq will make a difference...
-People often times complain about Daniel Gibson's struggles, and I was dissapointed in him last year. He had a toe injury that affected his shot and confidence. Now that he has an offseason of rest, he will come back strong, and I expect him to shoot well.
-Andy's extension was a pretty big one (6 yrs $43 million, could go up to $50 million), and he did get overpaid. Bigmen in the NBA tend to get overpaid, look at Kenyon Martin ($15 million a year), Kenny Thomas ($8 million a year), Zach Randolph ($17 million a year), and Brian Cardinal ($6.7 million a year). Anderson is only 26 and he is a great energy guy, who will bug opposing players, play tough defense, and grab rebounds. LeBron likes him a lot too. I am sad we overpaid for him, but he fills a solid role on our team.
-The addition of Anthony Parker was a solid move. He will fill the role that Sasha couldn't fill. He is a solid defender, great midrange shooter (Top 10 midrange shooter in the NBA), and solid 3 point shooter (39% last year). Although he is 34, he has the legs of a 31 year old because he played 6 seasons overseas. Overseas basketball does not have the rigor of an 82 game schedule like the NBA does, and they do not play 4 times a week. He adds size (6'6), and some scoring punch to our bench (10 ppg last year). The Cavs signed him to a 2 year deal, thus not getting bogged down in a longer contract (Damon Jones? Donyell Marshall?)
-Jamario Moon was a GREAT pickup. People do not realize how athletic this guy is. Go to YouTube, type his name and see what you will find. He is a solid defender with long arms, and can finish when near the basket. He is exactly what we need to guard the Orlando Magic, a long athletic perimeter guy who can close out quick on the Orlando shooters. He will be catching many alley-oop dunks from LeBron this year. The Cavs signed him to a 2 year deal, with a team option for a 3rd year, thus increasing his trade value after next year.
-Drafting Christian Eyenga was a head scratcher for me, but I think he could pan out to be a Leandro Barbosa/Mickael Pietrus type of player. He is a freakish athlete, who has good size for a SG/SF (6'6), a developing jumper, solid defender, and he is only 19! Eyenga lacks some fundamentals as he isn't a great shooter, has low basketball IQ, and he cannot create his own shot. Add to the fact that he speaks no English, you have yourself a project. While playing for the Cavs in the NBA Summer League he showed some flashes of his amazing athletiscm and defense. The Cavs even thought about keeping him here for the year. He signed a 3 year deal to play with Spain's DKV Joventut (same team Ricky Rubio player for), with an opt out clause every year, so the Cavs can bring him back next year. He is better suited to play overseas anyways because they develop players in a more fundamental way than the NBDL.
-SG Danny Green was a great pick. He will be able to contribute right away. Playing for Roy Williams and North Carolina for 4 years was a great benefit. Williams has a knack for sending a lot of players to the NBA. His teammates Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough were all drafted in the first round. Green will be a solid SG off the bench, who has good size (6'6), smarts, a great shot (51% from 3 last year), and a good defender. He will benefit from the double teams Shaq will get. Again, this is what the Cavs wanted out of Sasha and Wally, and they really never got it.
- The Cavs bought the Suns 2nd round pick SF Emir Preldzic. He is 6'9 who can pass very well, and is a very smart basketball player but he lacks a great shot and athleticism. He is a good gamble late in the draft, and he will be stashed away overseas for awhile. I am glad Dan Gilbert was willing to spend some money on a developmental player like him.
-Former Kansas Jayhawks PG Russell Robinson accepted an invitation to training camp. He could make the roster because of the fact that he plays solid defense, and was a solid PG in college. The Cavs do not have a true point guard on the team, and Robinson could fill the void of 3rd PG.
-The Cavs have made a contract offer to PF Leon Powe. He will miss at least half the season after knee surgery. He could be a low risk/high reward pickup because it will allow us to play JJ Hickson more, and see what we have with him exactly. If Hickson struggles and is not ready, we can plug Powe in half way, if Hickson is doing well we can continue to play him, or use him or Powe as trade bait. Powe will probably come cheap as well because he won't be able to play half the year.
-The Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and might end up losing Glen Davis and Leon Powe. Their team is very old, and after players reach their 1,000th game, their numbers tend to fall. Did anyone watch Tim Duncan after his 1,000th game? Garnett got injured after his 1,000th game. Ray Allen is 34 (will hit 1,000th game this year too), Garnett is 33, and Paul Pierce is 32. Rasheed is 34 as well. Rajon Rondo was on the trading block the entire NBA offseason because he clashed with both his teammates and Doc Rivers. Both Rivers and GM Danny Ainge badmouthed Rondo during the offseason as well. Also, after Rasheed who comes off the bench for the Celtics? Eddie House? Ha. Tony Allen? Ha Ha. Brian Scalabrine? Ha Ha Ha. Think about this too, you have 2 of the most wild personalities in the NBA on the same team in Rasheed and Garnett. Cavs fans have seen Rasheed blow up numerous times, and even shut it down if his team wasn't winning. Garnett will chase after white PG's in an attempt to scare them (Ask Jose Calderon and Luke Ridnour). Age, chemistry issues, and a lack of depth are really going to the hurt the Celtics.
-To me the Cavs and the Magic are the teams to beat in the East. The Magic lost their BEST offensive option in Hedo Turkoglu, backup PG Rafer Alston, backup C Tony Battie, and young up and comer Courtney Lee. Alston is expendable because of the return of Jameer Nelson, but losing Courtney Lee and Hedo was huge. Lee is going to be a good player in the NBA, and he was even starting for the Magic. He is a great shooter and a good defender.
-Turkoglu is a matchup nightmare at SF because he is 6'10, can drive, shoot, and run the pick and roll to perfection. The Magic lost height on the perimeter, and one of their main facilitators in Hedo. While Vince Carter puts up big numbers (21 points per game last year), he gets his offense mainly through himself, as he creates his own shot to score. What makes the Magic so deadly is their ability to pass out from Howard to the perimeter and knock down 3 point shots, or run the pick and roll to get open looks. Carter cannot facilitate like Hedo, and he does not drive as well as him either. If Carter is trying to create his own shot, it neutralizes the Magic's strengths. Carter played with Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson, and they still could not beat the Cavs in the 2007 playoffs.
-The Magic re-signed Marcin Gortat and added PF Brandon Bass, SF Matt Barnes, and PF Ryan Anderson. Losing Courtney Lee is a bigger loss than the gain of Matt Barnes, but Bass and Anderson will be solid upgrades over Battie. Anderson is a solid 3 point shooter, but he doesn't defend that well. The Magic gained more depth downlow, but they lost some of their backcourt depth, and their best forward. Losing Hedo and Courtney Lee (who were both great shooters and defenders) will really come back to hurt the Magic in my opinion.
-The Lakers are my favorite to repeat for the NBA championship. They re-signed Lamar Odom, lost Trevor Ariza, but added Ron Artest. They got tougher defensivley, and still kept a lot of the length that helped them win it all last year. It will be great to see the Cavs and Lakers play on Christmas Day.
-Overall, I think the Cavs had a great offseason. They addressed their most pressing needs of a scoring bigman downlow (Shaq), an athletic wing defender (Moon), and taller perimeter defenders who can knock down shots (Parker and Green). We overpaid to re-sign Andy, but the Cavs need to win now and there weren't any replacements out there. We need to show LeBron we are serious about a championship here in Cleveland. We currently have the 3rd highest payroll in the NBA, and it will probably be 2nd highest after we sign Danny Green. I have a lot of appreciation for Danny Ferry's patience and smarts (losing out on Artest, Ariza, and Villanueva/turning Ben Wallace and Sasha into Shaq), and Dan Gilbert's willingness to open his checkbook. It just goes to show you that you have to spend money to put a quality team on the field.
I will write about the Indians trades' in a little bit. Thanks for reading!
Cavs Offseason
-The addition of Shaq was a great move in my opinion. As long as he stays in shape he is good for 15 points and 6 rebounds a game. Since Carlos Boozer, the Cavs have not had a serious low post threat. Shaq will be much better against Dwight Howard one on one, but he will struggle defending the pick and roll.
-Teams will now have to respect Shaq by doubleteaming him. This leaves shooters such as Daniel Gibson, Anthony Parker, Mo Williams, Delonte West and Danny Green open. Remember how well Damon Jones and Jason Kapono shot with Shaq on their teams? Kapono shot 40% and 51% from 3 in his 2 years with Shaq, and Jones shot 43% in his lone season with Shaq. Kapono is a career 45% shooter from 3, and Jones is 39%. Yeah, Shaq will make a difference...
-People often times complain about Daniel Gibson's struggles, and I was dissapointed in him last year. He had a toe injury that affected his shot and confidence. Now that he has an offseason of rest, he will come back strong, and I expect him to shoot well.
-Andy's extension was a pretty big one (6 yrs $43 million, could go up to $50 million), and he did get overpaid. Bigmen in the NBA tend to get overpaid, look at Kenyon Martin ($15 million a year), Kenny Thomas ($8 million a year), Zach Randolph ($17 million a year), and Brian Cardinal ($6.7 million a year). Anderson is only 26 and he is a great energy guy, who will bug opposing players, play tough defense, and grab rebounds. LeBron likes him a lot too. I am sad we overpaid for him, but he fills a solid role on our team.
-The addition of Anthony Parker was a solid move. He will fill the role that Sasha couldn't fill. He is a solid defender, great midrange shooter (Top 10 midrange shooter in the NBA), and solid 3 point shooter (39% last year). Although he is 34, he has the legs of a 31 year old because he played 6 seasons overseas. Overseas basketball does not have the rigor of an 82 game schedule like the NBA does, and they do not play 4 times a week. He adds size (6'6), and some scoring punch to our bench (10 ppg last year). The Cavs signed him to a 2 year deal, thus not getting bogged down in a longer contract (Damon Jones? Donyell Marshall?)
-Jamario Moon was a GREAT pickup. People do not realize how athletic this guy is. Go to YouTube, type his name and see what you will find. He is a solid defender with long arms, and can finish when near the basket. He is exactly what we need to guard the Orlando Magic, a long athletic perimeter guy who can close out quick on the Orlando shooters. He will be catching many alley-oop dunks from LeBron this year. The Cavs signed him to a 2 year deal, with a team option for a 3rd year, thus increasing his trade value after next year.
-Drafting Christian Eyenga was a head scratcher for me, but I think he could pan out to be a Leandro Barbosa/Mickael Pietrus type of player. He is a freakish athlete, who has good size for a SG/SF (6'6), a developing jumper, solid defender, and he is only 19! Eyenga lacks some fundamentals as he isn't a great shooter, has low basketball IQ, and he cannot create his own shot. Add to the fact that he speaks no English, you have yourself a project. While playing for the Cavs in the NBA Summer League he showed some flashes of his amazing athletiscm and defense. The Cavs even thought about keeping him here for the year. He signed a 3 year deal to play with Spain's DKV Joventut (same team Ricky Rubio player for), with an opt out clause every year, so the Cavs can bring him back next year. He is better suited to play overseas anyways because they develop players in a more fundamental way than the NBDL.
-SG Danny Green was a great pick. He will be able to contribute right away. Playing for Roy Williams and North Carolina for 4 years was a great benefit. Williams has a knack for sending a lot of players to the NBA. His teammates Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough were all drafted in the first round. Green will be a solid SG off the bench, who has good size (6'6), smarts, a great shot (51% from 3 last year), and a good defender. He will benefit from the double teams Shaq will get. Again, this is what the Cavs wanted out of Sasha and Wally, and they really never got it.
- The Cavs bought the Suns 2nd round pick SF Emir Preldzic. He is 6'9 who can pass very well, and is a very smart basketball player but he lacks a great shot and athleticism. He is a good gamble late in the draft, and he will be stashed away overseas for awhile. I am glad Dan Gilbert was willing to spend some money on a developmental player like him.
-Former Kansas Jayhawks PG Russell Robinson accepted an invitation to training camp. He could make the roster because of the fact that he plays solid defense, and was a solid PG in college. The Cavs do not have a true point guard on the team, and Robinson could fill the void of 3rd PG.
-The Cavs have made a contract offer to PF Leon Powe. He will miss at least half the season after knee surgery. He could be a low risk/high reward pickup because it will allow us to play JJ Hickson more, and see what we have with him exactly. If Hickson struggles and is not ready, we can plug Powe in half way, if Hickson is doing well we can continue to play him, or use him or Powe as trade bait. Powe will probably come cheap as well because he won't be able to play half the year.
-The Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and might end up losing Glen Davis and Leon Powe. Their team is very old, and after players reach their 1,000th game, their numbers tend to fall. Did anyone watch Tim Duncan after his 1,000th game? Garnett got injured after his 1,000th game. Ray Allen is 34 (will hit 1,000th game this year too), Garnett is 33, and Paul Pierce is 32. Rasheed is 34 as well. Rajon Rondo was on the trading block the entire NBA offseason because he clashed with both his teammates and Doc Rivers. Both Rivers and GM Danny Ainge badmouthed Rondo during the offseason as well. Also, after Rasheed who comes off the bench for the Celtics? Eddie House? Ha. Tony Allen? Ha Ha. Brian Scalabrine? Ha Ha Ha. Think about this too, you have 2 of the most wild personalities in the NBA on the same team in Rasheed and Garnett. Cavs fans have seen Rasheed blow up numerous times, and even shut it down if his team wasn't winning. Garnett will chase after white PG's in an attempt to scare them (Ask Jose Calderon and Luke Ridnour). Age, chemistry issues, and a lack of depth are really going to the hurt the Celtics.
-To me the Cavs and the Magic are the teams to beat in the East. The Magic lost their BEST offensive option in Hedo Turkoglu, backup PG Rafer Alston, backup C Tony Battie, and young up and comer Courtney Lee. Alston is expendable because of the return of Jameer Nelson, but losing Courtney Lee and Hedo was huge. Lee is going to be a good player in the NBA, and he was even starting for the Magic. He is a great shooter and a good defender.
-Turkoglu is a matchup nightmare at SF because he is 6'10, can drive, shoot, and run the pick and roll to perfection. The Magic lost height on the perimeter, and one of their main facilitators in Hedo. While Vince Carter puts up big numbers (21 points per game last year), he gets his offense mainly through himself, as he creates his own shot to score. What makes the Magic so deadly is their ability to pass out from Howard to the perimeter and knock down 3 point shots, or run the pick and roll to get open looks. Carter cannot facilitate like Hedo, and he does not drive as well as him either. If Carter is trying to create his own shot, it neutralizes the Magic's strengths. Carter played with Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson, and they still could not beat the Cavs in the 2007 playoffs.
-The Magic re-signed Marcin Gortat and added PF Brandon Bass, SF Matt Barnes, and PF Ryan Anderson. Losing Courtney Lee is a bigger loss than the gain of Matt Barnes, but Bass and Anderson will be solid upgrades over Battie. Anderson is a solid 3 point shooter, but he doesn't defend that well. The Magic gained more depth downlow, but they lost some of their backcourt depth, and their best forward. Losing Hedo and Courtney Lee (who were both great shooters and defenders) will really come back to hurt the Magic in my opinion.
-The Lakers are my favorite to repeat for the NBA championship. They re-signed Lamar Odom, lost Trevor Ariza, but added Ron Artest. They got tougher defensivley, and still kept a lot of the length that helped them win it all last year. It will be great to see the Cavs and Lakers play on Christmas Day.
-Overall, I think the Cavs had a great offseason. They addressed their most pressing needs of a scoring bigman downlow (Shaq), an athletic wing defender (Moon), and taller perimeter defenders who can knock down shots (Parker and Green). We overpaid to re-sign Andy, but the Cavs need to win now and there weren't any replacements out there. We need to show LeBron we are serious about a championship here in Cleveland. We currently have the 3rd highest payroll in the NBA, and it will probably be 2nd highest after we sign Danny Green. I have a lot of appreciation for Danny Ferry's patience and smarts (losing out on Artest, Ariza, and Villanueva/turning Ben Wallace and Sasha into Shaq), and Dan Gilbert's willingness to open his checkbook. It just goes to show you that you have to spend money to put a quality team on the field.
I will write about the Indians trades' in a little bit. Thanks for reading!
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