Sunday, May 31, 2009

Looking Forward....

After last nights disappointing loss, the Cavs have a very big offseason to look forward to. LeBron can opt out of his contract in 2010, and this could be the Cavs last chance to put together a championship caliber team for LeBron. Heading forward, I don't have any inside information about what the Cavs are going to do, but I will try to make some educated guesses. Our biggest needs going into the offseason are a tough low post scorer, a tall small forward who can guard the perimeter, and a backup PG. We saw how Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum torched us in the post, we saw the mismatches the Magic gave us on the perimeter, the limited production we got in the post from our bigs was just awful, and we have no one to handle the ball with our 2nd unit.

Offseason Summary
-The Cavs have a lot of salaries coming off the book. Wally ($14 million), Joe Smith ($1.2 million), Eric Snow ($7 million), Lorenzen Wright ($1.2 million), are all off of our books. This brings our salary cap number down to $71.8 million. Anderson will opt out, which brings our cap number down to $65 million. I think the Cavs will try to bring Anderson back, but on a budget. They don't want to pay him too much because they need to save some cap room to get another superstar with LeBron in 2010. Z will pick up his player option, so we stay at $65 million. Sasha Pavlovic's contract is partially guaranteed, and he can be paid $1.5 million dollars and be let go, or we can pay him $4.95 million next year and keep him.
-The wild card here is that Ben Wallace is strongly considering retiring. If he retires he can do one of many things, this includes walking away from his $14 million salary next year, he can negotiate a buyout, or he can play it out. If Wallace was to walk away from his contract completely, it was bring our salary cap number down to about $48 million dollars. This would bring us under the projected $58 million salary cap. The probably won't happen, but the Cavs will have some flexibility if a buyout is agreed upon, and if Sasha is bought out. If Wallace retires, we can still trade his $14 million salary but he can negotiate a buyout with a team we trade him to. Ferry has to decide if he can get a better player in free agency or through a trade. In a trade it would save the team we are trading him to a lot of money because they would be trading away $14 million dollars worth of salary, but only pay the buyout amount. This makes him very valuable.
-Draft Picks: The Cavs have 2 draft picks in the upcoming draft. We own the 30th and 46th picks in this draft. While this is considered a weak draft class, it still has some solid players in it. One of the needs the Cavs need to address is a backup PG. Daniel Gibson won't cut it, and we have no one to handle the ball with our 2nd unit. This draft class is loaded with good PG's. This includes players such as Brandon Jennings, Ricky Rubio, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holliday, Johnny Flynn, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Stephen Curry, Patrick Mills, and Curtis Jerrells. The only guys I see falling to the Cavs are Mills and Jerrells. Also, there is a glut of athletic SF's in this draft, it includes DaJuan Summers, Sam Young, and Damion James. All 3 of these guys are seasoned players, and they could contribute early in their NBA careers. These guys could be around at #30.
-There aren't many good bigmen in this draft, and since we are drafting so low, we probably would have to take a developmental prospect with our 46th pick. A tough bigman is needed to replace Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, possibly even Andy. Our chances of finding one late in the draft aren't good, so I think trading one of our picks is a possibility.
-The Cavs still have a very valuable trading piece in JJ Hickson. His name was tossed around in a few deals last year, and I expect to hear the same this offseason. I believe he will only be traded if we land a big name.
-Chinese investors bought a 15% stake in the team last week. This is huge because it will give us immediate capital for the team. This will give us financial flexibility, and it will allow us to take back some bad contracts in our attempts to land a superstar next to LeBron.
-With the U.S. economy still reeling from the current recession, a lot of NBA teams are trying to cut salaries. The New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns, and Milwaukee Bucks are all trying to save as much money because they have felt the pinch of this recession. The Cavs on the other hand have lots of salaries coming off their books, an injection of cash into the team from the Chinese investors, and an owner in Dan Gilbert who is willing to spend money. This could be very beneficial to us because teams will be looking to dump salary, and the best way for teams to dump salary is to pair them with a great player, and receive an expiring contract in return (Ben Wallace/Sasha).

Possible Names to Consider:
-Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Utah Jazz- This one is my wild card player I think the Cavs will go after. He fits the bill of exactly what we need. He is tall (6'9), plays great defense, can drive to the hoop, and he is very energetic. He is the type of guy who can matchup very well against a Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkgolu. He would be replacing Sasha Pavlovic and Wally. The reasons why I don't think we would get him though is because his contract goes past 2010, and he is making $16 million next year, and $17 million in 2010, which would kill our 2010 plans. I think if the Jazz got a good offer for AK47, they could trade him because the Jazz struggled last year in the playoffs, and they have to decide on what they are going to do with Paul Milsap, and Carlos Boozer becoming free agents, and Mehmet Okur having an early termination option as well.
-Shaq, C, Phoenix Suns- The Cavs tried acquiring him at the trade deadline, and it did not work out. I still believe the Suns are going to try to trade Shaq because they know they won't win with him, their owner Robert Sarver is hurting in this bad economy, and their window of opportunity for winning a championship is basically shut. There was even talk of them trading Amare Stoudemire in February! The Cavs will probably have to part with some draft picks, Ben's contract, Sasha, and maybe JJ Hickson. Shaq would give us an immediate post threat that teams would have to account for. Also, his contract expires in 2010 which is huge. I think Shaq would be great in Cleveland because of his ability to score in the post, and rebound. While Shaq is old (37 years old), he put up 18 points and 8 rebounds per game last year. His PER went from 17.07 the year before to 22.33 this past year. When Shaq is healthy and motivated, he is still a force to be reckoned with.
-Chris Kaman, C, LA Clippers- The only reason I have him here is because the Clippers will be taking Blake Griffin with the first pick in the NBA Draft, and Zach Randolph's contract is impossible to trade, and Marcus Camby has an expiring deal, thus Kaman becomes expendable. Clippers owner Donald Sterling is always looking to save money, and Kaman is set to make $10 million next year. Kaman has good post skills, and he is a great rebounder, he just isn't that great of a defender. The reason why I don't think it would happen is because his contract goes past 2010. The Cavs need to decide if they can get a guy now that can help them win a championship, or get someone who might not be as good but have a 2010 friendly contract. This is a big issue.
-Chris Bosh, F, Toronto Raptors- If the Cavs get this guy, we win the championship. Its that simple. I know I have listed Bosh before, but according to a report from the NY Daily News, people inside the Raptors organization are realizing that they might have to trade Bosh. Toronto has no young talent around him, limited cap room this year, and it might make sense to trade for him before he becomes a free agent in 2010. Bosh can score downlow, he is big (6'11), and he is a great defender, who played with LeBron on Team USA this past year. I really think the Cavs have a chance at getting this guy too. Think about this, Pau Gasol was traded for Kwame Brown (expiring deal), Javaris Crittenton (young PG, with the Wizards now), 2 first round picks, and Marc Gasol. Marc Gasol is the only solid piece to come of that deal. Kevin Garnett was traded for Al Jefferson (great young player), Ryan Gomes (bench player), Sebastian Telfair (bum), Gerald Green (he rarely plays for Dallas), and Theo Ratliff (throw in). The Cavs can offer a first round pick this year, and in 2011, JJ Hickson, expiring deal of Ben Wallace, and either Sasha or Darnell, and we can take back the bad contract of Jason Kapono as well. The Raptors would save loads of money, get a promising young bigman, draft picks, and another young player. The only team I can think of that could do such a trade is Portland, but it makes no sense for them to do it because they have a young PF in LaMarcus Aldridge and a young C in Greg Oden. It will be interesting to see what happens.
-Tyson Chandler, C, New Orleans Hornets- The reason why I have him on the list is because the Hornets tried trading him at the trade deadline for 2 expiring deals (Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith), so obviously they are having financial difficulties. Chandler is a good low post defender, can block shots, and rebound. He has excellent size at 7'0, and he can run the floor. His contract does go past 2010, but he would give us great size downlow to defend, and his offensive game is not that polished. We again have the expiring deal of Ben Wallace to work with, along with Sasha Pavlovic's expiring deal. Taking back a bad contract would probably be required to pull off this trade.
-Jason Kidd, PG, Dallas Mavericks- Kidd is a free agent, and with so much cap space coming off of our books, the Cavs could make a small splash in free agency. With few teams having cap space, a tough U.S. economy where NBA teams are looking to save, free agents won't be getting huge deals we've seen in the past. We would probably use our mid level exception to get Kidd. He said earlier in the year he could see himself playing here, and while he isn't as good as he use to be, he can shoot the open 3, find and help set up his teammates. He takes very good care of the ball, and he is a true floor general. He played with LeBron on Team USA this past summer, and LeBron lobbied to get him in the 2008 trade deadline. There is a definite chance it could happen. I would love to see Jason Kidd as our backup PG.
-Matt Barnes, SF, Phoenix Suns- Barnes will be a free agent as well this offseason. He would fit our need for a backup SF. He is 6'7, extremely athletic, and he can defend. If the price is right, I think the Cavs will take a look.
-Ron Artest, SF, Houston Rockets- This would be a huge long-shot. Artest is a free agent, but his price tag will be high. He is an excellent, tough defender, with great size (6'8) and solid offensive skills. He would be a nightmare matchup for most teams because the Cavs would then have 6'9 LeBron paired with 6'8 Artest in the frontcourt. I only see Artest coming here if the Cavs are under the cap, and if Artest does not get the offers he is looking for.
-Lamar Odom, F, LA Lakers- Odom is a free agent this offseason as well, but his price tag will be somewhat high as well. He has great size (6'11), speed, athleticism, and he can score both inside and outside. He can defend the perimeter and when he puts his mind to it, he can rebound as well. He is versatile enough to play SF and PF as well. The Lakers have to decide what to do with Odom, and Trevor Ariza (he is a free agent too) because both are very valuable to the Lakers. Much like Artest, I only see Odom coming here if we are under the salary cap, and he doesn't have any good offers from good teams.
-Brandon Bass, PF, Dallas Mavericks- I love Brandon Bass because he is a tough, physical bigman, who can grab rebounds. He will be a free agent this offseason, and we could use a part of our mid level exception to sign him. He would be a solid bigman off the bench, and while he wouldn't solve our problems of low post scoring, he would give us much needed depth, as Joe Smith did last year.

Again, I have no inside information on any of this stuff, but I these are just my thoughts. A lot of this offseason is going to hinge on what Ben Wallace decides to do, and what direction the Andy negotiations go. If I am the Cavs, I bring Andy back only at the right price. He is a young bigman, and if his offensive game continues to develop he could be a very reliable asset to this team. Wally I wouldn't bring back because he is getting old, and he is not athletic enough to defend anymore. I would bring Joe Smith back at a very cheap price. Depending on what the trade market is like, I might hold on to Sasha because his deal expires, and he is still a young player (25 years old). I will write a NBA Draft preview later this month, contingent that the Cavs keep their picks! Thanks for reading!

-Raz

Mission: Failure

Well folks, not a fun night. The Cavs dream season came to a slamming end against the Orlando Magic tonight with a 103-90 loss. I thought we had a very good chance to beat this team, but in the end, the combination of a dominant bigman, and consistent three point shooting became our achillies heal, which led to our demise this season.

-Losing Game 1 killed us. I have said all along that winning Game 1 is huge in any series, and we did not do it. We lost our homecourt invincibility, and we lost our confidence. Once the Cavs saw that they could be beat, especially in the playoffs, we seemed tentative and afraid. We took Orlando too lightly in the second half of Game 1, blowing a 16 point half time lead. After that, we never really quite looked the same for 48 minutes....
-Its sad that LeBron had such a dominating series (41 ppg 8 assists 8 rebounds), and it all basically goes to waste. Add the fact that he hit the biggest shot in Cavs history in Game 2, you get an uneasy feeling inside. He didn't even speak to the media after the loss tonight, and he went straight to the team bus......
-I am disappointed in LeBron's game tonight somewhat because he just seemed too tentative tonight. He didn't not come out aggressive, and he seemed to shy away from the basket when he didn't get foul calls early on. Also, Delonte and Mo each stepped up scoring 22 and 17 respectfully. He seemed tired in the end of the game, and it was probably from carrying the team on his back for so long.
-I give a lot of credit to Delonte West in this game and series. He was the only one fighting this entire game and he seemed fearless. He had a few step back jumpshots, a three pointer, and he attacked the basket. With 1 minute left in the 4th quarter, off of a missed shot, he went and stripped the ball out of Hedo Turkgolu's hands, even though the game was long over. He had to guard Hedo the entire series and he was giving up about 7 inches too. For those of you who play basketball, giving up that much size on defense isn't fun.
-Mo Williams was truly a disappointment in the first four games. He seemed very nervous, and he couldn't get any consistency out of his 3 point shot. He came alive when it was too late, he scored 25 points in game 5 and 17 tonight. The Cavs needed production out of him earlier in the series and they didn't get it. In the series as a whole, he only shot 35%....
-The bench was also very bad. Joe Smith, and Wally gave nothing, Daniel did hit a couple of 3 pointers, Sasha didn't get enough playing time, Ben Wallace tried his best on Dwight, but its obvious his best days are way behind him. This is an area in which the Cavs will need to get a Mickael Pietrus/JR Smith type of guy off the bench who can just score as a 6th man.
-Everyone is making an issue of LeBron not talking to the media after the game. Big deal. Have you ever played a sport where you wanted to win very badly, worked a very long time to get to where you were and you lost? Did you want to talk to anyone afterwards? LeBron was so focused on winning a championship, and he came up short. I don't think he needs to explain himself to everyone. The national media will make this out to be something big, and that he is going to NYC in 2010. You really think that while LeBron was walking out of the locker room, he said to himself "NYC, here I come!". I think not. Some of the members of the media should consider playing team sports, it could help in situations like this.
-Mike Brown got outcoached in this series. He should have played Sasha more instead of Wally because of his athleticism, and ability to drive. He could have better guarded Hedo or Rashard. Z played too many minutes in the first 4 games, as he played over 28 minutes a game in each. Z cannot guard the Magic pick and roll because he is too slow. He cannot score in the paint anymore, and if he can't shoot his jumper, there isn't much use for him aside from rebounding. Darnell Jackson should have gotten more playing time because he is a big body who can absorb contact and eat fouls. Joe Smith should have played more as well, because of his ability to shoot jumpers and guard the 3 point shot. Also, Mike Brown really didn't try doing anything radical or different. How about putting Tarence Kinsey in to guard Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus, so LeBron could guard Rashard or Hedo? Kinsey is definitely athletic enough to do so, and he has the height to matchup with them (6'6). Throw something at the Magic that they haven't seen, force them to adjust to you. Go with a smaller, quicker lineup, run the ball up the court faster or maybe post up LeBron. Brown seemed to go with his same rotations, and when your in an elimination game, you need to try to do EVERYTHING to win.
-All in all, I don't know what to think about this offseason. Andy and Z can opt out of there contracts (Andy probably will, Z probably won't), Wally's contract expires (he won't be back), Sasha has a partially guaranteed contract (trade bait), Joe Smith is a free agent (might be back), we have 2 draft picks in the upcoming draft, Ben Wallace has a $14 million expiring deal, the mid-level exception at hand, and Chinese Investors bought a 15% stake in the Cavs (more cash to use). I am not sure what all this adds up to, but Danny Ferry and company are definitely going to have to get creative this offseason. I will write a more detailed review of our season, and preview of our offseason later.

I am proud of the way the Cavs played this year and they played great. I am thankful that we got to see this team achieve the best record in the NBA, go 39-2 at home in the regular season, develop great team chemistry, pull off last second heroics (@ Clippers, @ Atlanta, @ Golden State), blowout wins, hilarious pre-game rituals, the awards won by LeBron James and Mike Brown, but in the end our one goal of a championship was a failure in itself.......

-Raz

Monday, May 18, 2009

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

Hello everyone. Last night the Orlando Magic defeated the Boston Celtics in the 7th game of their series. While I would have loved to seen us play Boston, we are stuck with the better team. This series is going to be a real dogfight. Today's blog will be dedicated to a preview of the series.

-The Magic are a team that can beat you one of two ways, with the three point shot, or by pounding you in the block with Dwight Howard. While we have played great defense in the playoffs thus far, the Magic have length in their 3 point shooters. JJ Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hedo Turkgolu, and Rashard Lewis are all over 6'5, and Turkgolu and Lewis are both 6'10.
-Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, and Dwight Howard are all great defenders. Howard won the Defensive Player of the Year Award this year, and the Cavs must be physical, attack and grind out games against these guys.
-Orlando can win both at home and away. But they can also lose very easily at home because of their dependence on the 3 point shot. Game 1 will be huge for the Cavs because Orlando is coming off a huge victory in Boston, and Cleveland will have had almost 8 days of rest and need to shake off some rust. Also, Orlando beat Cleveland twice this year, once by 11 points and once by 29. The Cavs beat the Magic at home by only 4 points....
-If I am the Cavs, I try my best to close out the perimeter, and force Dwight Howard to beat you. Closing out on the 3 point shooters of Orlando will be huge. If we can pressure the shooters or just force them to not take shots, the Cavs will win the series.
-While Howard is the best big man in the league, and a great rebounder, he still does not have any consistent post moves. He does not have a consistent jump shot, hook shot, and he is a horrible free throw shooter (59%). Our post defenders must play physical with Howard, as Kendrick Perkins did in the previous series. Versus Boston Howard averaged 16 points and 17 rebounds a game, and while his rebounding increased, his scoring decreased by about 4 points.
-Getting Howard into foul trouble early will be important because it not only take away their best player, but it takes away their best post defender. This opens up the floor for LeBron James.
-The reason why I believe we should try and let Howard beat us is because the if the Magic get hot from the outside, the game will be very hard to win for the Cavs.
-The Magic backcourt is somewhat weak with Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, and Courtney Lee coming off an injury. Alston struggled in the Celtics series as he averaged only 10 points and 4 assists a game.
-The way the Cavs will win this series is our shooting and defense. Z, Joe Smith, Daniel, Sasha, Delonte, Wally, and Mo all must hit their shots. This will keep the defenders on them close, and it will open the floor up for LeBron to drive and create.
-Delonte needs to attack the basket to keep Courtney Lee off balance, and Mo must hit 3's to help keep pressure off LeBron on offense.
-LeBron needs to continue his improved jumpshooting. He is averaging 32.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists a game thus far in the playoffs. He is shooting 55% from the field, and 48% from 3. The better LeBron shoots, the more floor space he will have to operate with.
-Z hitting his jumpers and even a 3 pointer here and there is huge because it will force Howard to close out on him out of the block, which will give us better chances to grab offensive boards.
-Anderson needs to do a good job of playing physical defense on Rashard Lewis. Lewis has a very high release on his 3 point shot, and Anderson must do his best job to disrupt his shot.

While I am not happy that we are stuck with the Magic, I think the Cavs can win the series. LeBron needs to continue his great play, and his teammates must help him out on offense. Our defense needs to continue to suffocate, and we have to get all the loose balls and hustle plays. The reason I think we are going to win is because teams that usually live by the 3, die by it. Rebounding will be another key factor, and I believe the Cavs will put up a very good fight on the boards. With the extended rest for Ben Wallace, Z, and Joe Smith, the Cavs should have fresh legs to grab boards. Add the combination that we have Anderson and LeBron attacking the glass will only help our cause. I am confident that LeBron will lead the team in the series, and he will not let us lose. We have been an extremely focused team throughout the year and we must not lose sights on our goal of an NBA Championship. I have the Cavs in 6 games.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Keeping It Up

Hello everyone, its been awhile, so lets get to work.

Cleveland Browns
-Not much to report here. Braylon rumors continue to fester but I don't think there is much to them. I think the Browns think Braylon can have a Pro Bowl year and make great contributions to this team. To me, he is a headcase, can't catch, and he probably won't stay past next year, and thats why I advocated for a trade. Since the draft is complete, I guess you have to go with the guys you have.
-I predict that Brady Quinn will be the starting QB of the team opening day. According to Tony Grossi, the Browns rejected 2 trades for Quinn and both these offers included a 1st round pick. The Browns used Quinn as a smokescreen to bait teams into trading up for Mark Sanchez. I like Quinn and I think he can be a good QB in this league.

Cleveland Indians
-This team is in somewhat of a mess. The players held a players only meeting a couple games ago. Our bullpen cannot hold a lead, and when we do get solid pitching, our hitting doesn't come through.
-We need consistency out of our bullpen. Can you name a solid bullpen arm that the Tribe has had this year? Raffy Perez was optioned to AAA, Betancourt has a 4.91 ERA, Kobayashi has a 8.38 ERA, Joe Smith has a 7.11 ERA, and Kerry Wood has an ERA of 6.00.
-Fausto Carmona has continued to struggle this year. He is 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA. He has 25 walks, 25 strikeouts in 42 innings. He is a key to our pitching staff, and if theres any chance of salvaging our season he needs to get his act together.
-Cliff Lee has not been that bad. Yes his record is 2-5, but he has an ERA of 3.00. In 4 of his 5 losses the Indians offense scored a combined 2 runs...
-People are starting to call for Eric Wedge to be let go. I still would give him another 2-3 weeks to see if this team will have any chance at all to make it out of the Central. We are only 6 games back, and we are just a solid winning streak away from climbing in the standings.

Cleveland Cavaliers
-The Cavs have done great in the playoffs so far. They swept the Detroit Pistons in 4 games, and the Atlanta Hawks in 4 games. They won every game by double digits.
-Our defense continues to be impressive as we held the Hawks to 78.5 points per game in the series. We out-rebounded them 44.5 to 30.75.
-LeBron James continues his amazing performance throughout the playoffs, and his shooting touch seems to have been improved. He is averaging almost a point a minute throughout the playoffs.
-If the Cavs play the Celtics, they need to finally knock the defending Champs out. The Magic have a better team but they can't seem to close the envelope. The Cavs must deliver the killer blow to the Celtics and not let them hang around. It will definitely be a grind out series.
-The Cavs need to continue their stout defense and aggressive rebounding if they want to beat the LA Lakers. The Lakers can score 120 points on any given night, but they are an inconsistent team. The Cavs must be focused on boxing out, defending the post, and slowing the tempo down. By doing this, the Cavs will be playing to their strengths of defense, rebounding, and half court offense.
-I still believe the Lakers will beat the Cavs if they play in the Finals. I have written why in earlier blogs. Any other team out of the West, I have the Cavs.
-This upcoming offseason will be big for the Cavs as Wally, Joe Smith, and Anderson will all be free agents. There is a early termination option with Sasha's contract as well. We should have the mid level exception to use, along with millions coming off the books. And did I mention we have 2 draft picks in this years up coming draft?

Well folks this just about does it. With the Cavs on a break for a little bit, the Indians struggling, and the Browns a couple months from training camp, sports talk has been a little slow. It will pick up once the Cavs begin to play again and when we know the direction the Indians are headed. Thanks for reading!

-Raz